Renewable Energy- The topic of sustainable, renewable forms of energy - The world on a single page.

Many people believe that high food prices are a result of the biofuel industry?s demand for food crops like corn. This is not the case. Food prices have risen by 4.5% in the US this year, mainly due to one reason; the high oil price. Global food prices have risen over 40% and again the main reason is the high oil price. Ethanol has got preciously little to do with this.

For myth-busting information about how food, ethanol and oil interrelate, you should check out an organization called FoodPriceTruth.org. Originally created to inform the American public about a smear campaign against ethanol by the food industry, the organization has publishes an interesting collection of facts and figures giving you a quick overview of the major issues in an instant.

FoodPriceTruth dismantles commonly believed myths about food prices, biofuel, oil and world poverty in split seconds.

Here's some key facts listed on FoodPriceTruth.org;
- U.S. food prices have increased about 4.5% this year.
- World food prices have increased over 40% this year (numbers based on USDA and the White House Council of Economic Advisors data)
- Corn demand is only responsible for 3 percent of the 40% increase in the world food price rises.
- When Crude oil went from $40 to $120, corn went from $2 a bushel to $6 a bushel, a tripling of both prices. BUT about $1 of the corn price increase was due to the influence of the ethanol market and $3 to the higher crude price.
- U.S. corn ethanol production has indeed increased the demand and price for corn. But it is misleading to suggest that this price dynamic is a driver of food price rises.
- The price of groceries is traditionally insensitive to corn price hikes.
- Biofuels only consume roughly 4% of the world's various grains.
- Ethanol is made from "dent" or yellow "feed" corn. People accuse ethanol of increasing the price of beer, pasta and tortillas, which is curious because none of those products are made from "dent" corn.

The consensus opinion of economists is that factors behind the food price rises in the US include;
- record oil prices,
- the declining value of the U.S. dollar,
- increased demand for grain from developing economies around the world,
- rampant speculation on the commodities market,
- weather related production shortages worldwide (especially wheat), and food company profiteering.

When trying to figure out how the factors interact, keep in mind that higher oil prices affect much more than just your own car. Higher oil prices affect the cost of industry at large. Manufacturers pass on the extra transport costs to end consumers.

Also bear in mind that food items tend to be largely unrelated to ethanol or corn prices but to fundamental supply and demand relationships. These in turn are largely related to oil.

Various official data recently released underscore this fact. As a matter of fact, ethanol actually keeps food prices down say analysts at Merrill Lynch who have calculated that biofuels have reduced gasoline and diesel prices by 16-25%.

This was also the main reason why the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) decided two weeks ago to deny the State of Texas request to reduce the amount of ethanol on the market.

Slow Food USA is hosting its first-ever Slow Food Nation convention this weekend in San Francisco, and boy, do I wish I could be there.  Not only is San Francisco one of my favorite cities in the world, but the convention which bills itself as “the largest celebration of food in America”–and judging from the lineup of events, it’s got to be close.  The event, which kicks off Friday, expects to draw 50,000 people sampling food and wine, listening to speakers, taking part in workshops, watching films, taking hikes, seeing cooking demonstrations, and even rocking out to bands.  Even better, Slow Food Nation is drawing together citizens, chefs, farmers, activists, and artists in a community of people who support good food and food justice.

Read more of this story »

Downtown Raleigh, North Carolina, is a bustling small city filled with Southern charm.  Spanning five blocks of the city's historic district is the site of the sustainably-planned community of Blount Street Commons.

(Read on?)

With the rapid retreat of polar ice, a brave new world is being opened up to those who are willing to go take it. We?ve seen America and Russia send parties north to stake claims, and now Canada is following suit, looking to discover and tap mineral, oil and gas riches beneath the Arctic.

Canada?s Prime Minister Stephen Harper announced the decision on Tuesday. Researchers both on the ground and in the air will be gathering data on Canada?s three northern territories: the Yukon, Northwest Territories and Nunavut.

Read more of this story »

California law requires the state to get 20 percent of its electricity from renewable sources by 2010, and it is looking at Oregon's wind power industry as a way to do it.

An employee of Japanese electronics giant Mitsubishi displaying the world's highest efficiency solar power cell in Tokyo on August 27.

Gov. Jennifer Granholm was in her element at the Democratic National Convention Tuesday night: microphone in hand, facing a friendly audience, moving around the stage, chatting about alternative energy.

Wyoming officials say a pair of wind developers have committed to buying 585 megawatts of capacity on a transmission line that would connect to Colorado's Front Range.

Mr. Nakhamkin has helped develop technology to pull excess energy off the power grid - usually at night when usage has waned - to run compressors that pump air into sealed, underground caverns that once held ...

By now most people know that by this weekend there will likely be a hurricane spinning its way somewhere in the Gulf of Mexico. This open thread outlines the initial analysis by Chuck Watson/KAC/UCF and some resources on GOM oil and gas infrastructure.

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From KAC/UCF google earth link

From meteorologist Chuck Watson:

Both GFDL and HWRF (which will replace GFDL) are showing fairly explosive amplification in the mid Gulf. Even the official forecast is now showing damage to the OCS facilities, and GFDL is showing Katrina-like long term disruption. None of the official tracks are onshore yet, but our in-house runs out to 180 hrs are showing hits to refineries and pipelines, as well as knocking SPR off line for a couple weeks as well. Of course, estimates beyond 72 hours are more "possible scenarios" than real forecasts, and a little wobble one way or the other makes a big difference in damage, but Gustav is starting to get scary.

The Gulf of Mexico represents about 25% of overall US production, or represents 10% of US Oil usage. (*Ed. Note - I believe Nat Gas is about 13-14% of US production)

Using the 6Z 27 Aug GFDL run, we are showing some facilities off line until early December. The total loss is 12% of Gulf oil production between now and the end of the year (126 days). Interestingly, NG isn't so much of a hit - only a 5% loss of the remainder of the year's production.

I asked Chuck Watson what the odds were that this storm wouldn't even make it to the Gulf as a strong hurricane this was his reply:

20% chance it stays as a high TS/low Cat1 due to interactions with Cuba, crosses the northern Yucatan, then across the southern Gulf as a week system.

20% chance it tracks across eastern Cuba, never really gets it together and stays weak cat1 or lower up the west coast of FL (Fay like track).(this is my current favorite scenario for some reason)

30% chance it follows the current guidance and stays below cat 3.

30% chance it follows current guidance, amplifies, and is cat 3 or higher.

100% chance we're probably wrong . . .;-)

We are still 4-5 days out from a potential US landfall so uncertainty is high, though given the stakes, Gustav is becoming kind of a binary event. Chuck has put together a dynamically updating page that will reflect the latest damage models/forecasts at this link: KAC/UCF models.

PRODUCTION/INFRASTRUCTURE MAPS AND REFINERY INFORMATION

We have accumulated resources from previous hurricans below, but we'd like to find updated materials if you know of them. Recent refinery maps, recent rig maps in the gulf, recent gas fields, SPR facilities, the Intercoastal Canal, pipeline stations and transfer points, etc., etc. Leave links in the comments please.

Also, here's the EIA's Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas Resources pages. They will also likely come in handy. Also, here's a link to the national page.

Here's another good resource for infrastructure maps and such. (scroll down a bit)

Here's a map from CNN with large and small refineries laid out. (though it is an old storm track)

Very detailed piece by RIGZONE on rigs and other infrastructure in the area. (thanks mw)

Here's a flash graphic of the oil refineries and rig maps, emphasizing Beaumont and Galveston's importance. Click on oil production. Note the many rigs on the east side of the storm that will get the brunt of the damage from the NE quad of the storm...hence the high long-term GOMEX oil production damage estimates below.

And Here's the probably the best MMS map I could find. Very detailed and lots of interesting stuff. (VERY big .pdf warning)

This is a repost from last summer, when for the first time, I attempted to grow a meaningful amount of my own food, at least enough to store during the winter and supplement (hopefully) fewer trips to the grocery store. I planted 38(!) heirloom tomato plants, which proved to be a few too many. I literally had days with bushel baskets of tomatoes. Some went to friends, many were dried, many were partially cooked in a solar oven, then frozen. It is really not about tomatoes or solar ovens, but about a comment my father made, ultimately relating to paradigm shifts and tipping points. (Note: I am just now finishing the last of 2007's tomatoes, just when this years are being snuck off the vine by my dog)

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First some background:

I go out in the morning and pick whatever tomatoes are ripe. On sunny days, I wash and core the tomatoes, then quarter them. In July, I wrote a post here about the Midwest Renewable Energy Fair, where I bought a Solar SOS oven. I really like it, and use it most days either to cook a snack or blanche/prepare some produce for storage. It can get to about 225 degrees and about 275 if you use the solar reflectors (not shown here)

I then put the tomatoes in the pot, put a little olive oil on them and some oregano and italian seasoning, close the lid of the solar oven, point it towards the sun and rotate clockwise 30 degrees, and leave to do whatever else is on my agenda for the day.

Several hours later (or as little as 2 hours), I return to juicy delicious tomato concoction, which I can eat with bread or such right then.

But lately, I've been dumping the contents in freezer bags and throwing them in my (energy star) freezer, to remind me of summer during the long Wisconsin winter. But heres the moral of this story.

My father is one of my favorite people, though politically and economically he hits it pretty straight down the fairway. He's a peak oil agnostic - though he does believe that oil is finite, he doesn't think there will be meaningful supply problems in his lifetime (on this we disagree). He is a nature lover, and very knowledgeable about the natural world, though I suspect this is related to the deer and ducks he shoots. He has always been a very hard worker - even if nothing really needs 'doing' he will find a 'project' of some sort to occupy his time, usually outdoors.

Though Ive thought Ive gotten under his skin the past year or so - warning of peak oil, explaining how dependent our system is on liquid fuels, articulating how fragile the food transport economy is, etc., perhaps there have been positive externalities from these talks. He helped me build a decent sized garden this year, and we have been storing (and eating) from the garden for the past few months.

(Punchline)Yesterday I was too busy to go use the solar oven. At about 3 in the afternoon my father returned from some various outdoor chores and inquired 'Whats in the solar oven today, Nat?" I told him I had forgotten to put anything in it - that I was too busy. His reply, (the title of this post), was a vehement "Dammit?!! You've wasted a day of sunlight!!" And you could tell from his expression that he actually felt this as a 'loss'. (It's possible he was thinking that we'd now need to use the kitchen oven, which would cost money in KwH, as opposed to free sunlight)

After the initial shock and some chuckling, I thought a bit about this. My father is old school. For him to think in terms of 'energy' as a currency to pay attention to, is important. He is not in the peak oil crowd, but just a normal guy pursuing his lot. It gave me renewed confidence in our collective ability to change, when I heard those terms meaningfully spoken, from someone who has worked hard his entire life but never viewed 'sunlight' as something of value.

Today's societal metric of success is pecuniary bigger and better stuff. This metric was not one created overnight. Our world has been morphed by a collection of baby steps, too small to notice day by day, but quite significant when they accumulate over decades. So too, will the world of our children be created by such small steps. The change to a biophysical economy will also be a long process. To me, being chastised by my Dad that I wasted a day of sunlight, was a baby step in the right direction.

I'm not suggesting that everyone be farmers. But to change small aspects of our lives to be more in sync with natural systems is an improvement in our demand infrastructure that will accrete over time. These ?food chores? may appear wasteful to an economist. My time, knowledge and experience in other areas should be able to provide more societal utility translatable to monetary value for me and more resources to society as a whole via my comparative advantage. Indeed, the amount of money I could make in the time it took me to procure one batch of tomatoes would probably be enough to have dried heirloom tomatoes delivered to my door by Federal Express. But I a)enjoy spending my time this way, b)eat healthier unprocessed food, c)have more opportunity to create social capital with neighbors and d)have less opportunity to spend my time consuming other stuff...

Had my Dad not been traveling today, perhaps he would have told me I wasted a day of rain...;)

Energy Company Agrees to Disclose Global Warming Risks

ALBANY, N.Y. ? The New York attorney general Andrew Cuomo said Thursday that the power company, Xcel Energy, had agreed to disclose risks to investors from its stake in coal-burning power plants and any related liability from global warming, lawsuits and new regulations or laws.

Coal plants can significantly contribute to climate change, Mr. Cuomo said ?and investors have the right to know all the associated risks.?

Report: Climate Shift Could Profoundly Alter Md. Shore

Climate change could profoundly alter Maryland in the next century, swallowing 200 square miles of low-lying land, making heat waves more deadly, and allowing Southern species to colonize its woodlands and the Chesapeake Bay, according to a new state report.

The "Climate Action Plan," released today by the state's Commission on Climate Change, says that "Maryland is poised in a very precarious position" if temperatures continue to warm. It says the state is particularly vulnerable to sea-level rise, because of its long, winding coastline.

Petrobras Finds Offshore Oil in Deep Water Campos Basin Field

(Bloomberg) -- Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Brazil's state-controlled oil company, found oil in an offshore well in the Campos Basin more than 6,800 meters (22,310 feet) below the ocean surface, the country's petroleum regulator said.

Peak oil and Mexico: The socioeconomic impacts of Cantarell?s decline

Reduced oil exports from Mexico will have far reaching implications. At the global level, an increasingly inelastic production chain will be drawn that much tighter. For the United States, a stable source of supply will be eroded to the detriment of both reliability and energy security.

As important as these consequences are, however, they pale in significance compared to the impact reduced oil production will have on the people of Mexico ? a nation which has literally changed its socioeconomic profile with billions in revenues from oil exports. Record revenues pay for schools, roads, hospitals, and other important societal infrastructure.

Fuel costs reduce Air NZ's earnings

Spiralling fuel costs have lopped 24% off Air New Zealand's normalised earnings and the national carrier is predicting a potential transtasman "bloodbath" with increasing competition coming into the sector.

Plan seeks neighborhood leaders in capital city

MONTPELIER ? Nearly 75 residents gathered Monday evening from 14 designated neighborhoods to figure out how to keep their neighbors safe and warm this winter.

The meeting was part of Montpelier's CAN! ? Capital Area Neighborhoods, an emergency planning project to aid the city in responding to emergencies this upcoming winter season.

New bike commuters hit the classroom, then the road

The rush of new cyclists, created by high gas prices, is driving up demand for bike safety classes.

As Americans fill trains, frustration grows

Rising costs of traveling by air and car, brought on by record oil prices, drew a record 2.8 million people onto America's cash-strapped passenger railway network in July, the largest of any single month in Amtrak's 37-year history and up nearly 14 percent from a year earlier.

But as passenger numbers grow, so too are complaints of overcrowding and delays.

Former FirstEnergy engineer guilty on 3 of 5 counts

The four-member defense team claimed throughout the trial that Mr. Siemaszko was set up by the NRC, the Department of Justice, and the utility as a scapegoat for the near-catastrophe at the plant in Ottawa County.

Mr. Siemaszko's attorneys maintained he was trying to get Davis-Besse's old reactor head fixed in 2000.

Upon inspection in early April of 2002, the head was found in a near-ruptured state - the worst ever for an in-service U.S. nuclear reactor. Its dangerous condition was blamed on years of neglect and a massive cover-up.

Subsequent laboratory tests showed it was a statistical fluke that it held together. If it hadn't, deadly radioactive steam would have formed in containment for the first time since the half-core meltdown of Pennsylvania's Three Mile Island Unit 2 nuclear plant in 1979.

Richard Heinberg: GM Pines for Electric Car

In just two years we?ve gone from a film documentary called Who Killed the Electric Car? to an article in Canada?s Globe and Mail titled Who Revived the Electric Car?. This is a deliciously ironic turn of events.

Those of us who understand the perils of oil dependency have been advocating the electrification of transport for years: not only can an electric transport system access renewable sources of energy like solar and wind, but electric motors are far more efficient than internal combustion engines, so electric cars use less energy than gasoline-fed cars do?and emit less CO2 even if their power comes ultimately from a coal-fired generating plant.

Peak phosphorus: Quoted reserves vs. production history

By fitting a bell curve to historical phosphate production data, the best fit is obtained by assuming an ultimate recoverable resource of approximately 9 billion tonnes (of which about 6.3 billion tonnes have already been mined). This yields a peak in around 1990. Of course, the USGS claims an ultimate recoverable resource of some 24.3 billion tonnes (i.e. 18 billion remaining), however using this value yields a bell curve that is an inferior match to the historical data. A hypothesis is thus presented whereby phosphorus is considered in two broad forms: ?easy? which is able to be mined quickly, but already peaked in 1990, and ?hard? which has large remaining reserves and is yet to peak, but cannot be mined as quickly. (In reality there are probably many different forms ranging from very easy to very hard.) Just as with oil, estimates that lump all types of reserve in together will yield a theoretical peak that is high and distant, however the true system may involve periods of decline after exhausting easy-to-get reserves before other supplies come online to replace them. Ultimately we must develop a recyclable phosphorus supply if humans are to continue living on this planet.

Gustav May Rival Katrina as It Advances Toward Gulf of Mexico

(Bloomberg) -- U.S. oil and natural gas producers are beginning evacuations in the Gulf of Mexico as Tropical Storm Gustav, which may become the costliest hurricane since Katrina and Rita in 2005, heads toward the region.

``We could see 50 percent of Gulf of Mexico oil and gas production shut in,'' said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates in Houston.

Energy prices rose as the storm was forecast to regain hurricane strength on a track toward Louisiana and the offshore fields responsible for about a quarter of U.S. oil production and 15 percent of gas output.

Arctic sea ice melts to second worst on record

WASHINGTON - New satellite measurements show that crucial sea ice in the Arctic Ocean has plummeted to its second lowest level on record.

The National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colo., announced Wednesday that the extent of sea ice in the Arctic is down to 2.03 million square miles. The lowest point on record is 1.65 million square miles set last September. With about three weeks left in the melt season, the record may fall, scientists say.

Pakistan: Protests against loadshedding go violent

TANK: The angry residents staged rallies at main bazaar here Tuesday and set on fire the Pesco office in protest against loadshedding, reducing all the records to ashes.

Sources said hundreds of residents took out a protest procession, marching through main bazaar, reached Pesco office.

Eyewitnesses said the angry protestors forced their entry into the Pesco office where they ransacked and burnt the furniture and official records. Policemen remained silent spectators and could not stop the protestors from destroying the furniture and records of Pesco office.

Mexico: The Winds of Revolt

Today, cracks are visible on the Mexican veneer. Violence is raging, as frustration from the lack of economic opportunities forces people to resort to narcotrafficking and kidnapping as a way to survive. So-called revolutionary groups are reappearing, blowing up pipelines and extorting businesses. In less than two years, Pemex will squeeze the last remaining oil out of Cantarell. This will be a body blow to the government?s fiscal accounts. The monopoly rents generated in telecommunications, media and cement may have produced some of the wealthiest men on the planet, but it saddled the economy with enormous costs and bottlenecks. The unwillingness of the victors of the Mexican Revolution to give quarter means that they will probably have to be dislodged by force. Unfortunately, the clock is running out. With less than two years to go until the 10th year of the new millennium, history suggests that another bloody revolution may be somewhere on the horizon.

Alabama Power asks regulators for major rate hike

NEW YORK (Associated Press) - Alabama Power Co. has asked the Public Service Commission to raise rates for residential customers by 14.6 percent due to rising costs for coal and natural gas.

Olympic Torch Out; PetroChina Left With Pools Of Oil

The Olympic flame was extinguished on Sunday, leaving host nation China with a surfeit of fuel oil.

China?s nine-month spree importing refined petroleum products is likely to end in the fall, as the close of the Summer Games spells surplus inventories of gasoline and diesel. A slackening of demand in the world?s second-biggest oil consumer may help ease upward pressure on global oil prices.

U.S. Clears Way for Pemex Pipeline, El Paso Times Reports

(Bloomberg) -- Petroleos Mexicanos, the state-owned oil company, may receive a permit to extend a pipeline into the U.S. next month after the U.S. State Department issued an environmental study on the project, the El Paso Times reported.

The 100-Year Gap in Understanding

When I was in college I took a course on the great political philosophers. Soon I had them all lined up with their respective eras: Hobbes and the 18th-century monarchies, Locke and the American Revolution, Kant and 19th-century nation-states.

Then I chanced to see a timeline of their births and deaths. To my amazement, each had lived 100 years before I had placed him. The lesson seemed plain. It takes about 100 years for ideas to enter history.

It has been the same with nuclear power. The potential of nuclear energy was first formulated in 1905 in Einstein?s famous equation, E=mc2. Most people know it by now. Mariah Carey even named her latest album after it. But its true significance has not yet been recognized.

SAfrica seeks firms to reprocess nuclear fuel

CAPE TOWN (Reuters) - South Africa is seeking commercial contracts with foreign companies to reprocess spent nuclear fuel, a senior official said on Wednesday.

The country plans to expand its nuclear industry and diversify its energy mix as it battles a crippling power shortage which has hit key mining, smelting and manufacturing sectors, trimming growth in Africa's strongest economy.

Sims seeks increase in Metro bus fares

"Here in King County, just as our ridership is surging, higher fuel costs and lower tax revenues from a faltering economy are creating a growing deficit in our Metro budget," Sims said in a blog on his Web site, http://ronsims.wordpress.com/. "We must do all we can to keep our buses running and maintain our existing transit service."

Natural Farming Pioneer Fukuoka Masanobu Dies, 95 Years Old

Fukuoka Masanobu, Japan's great-grandfather of natural farming, has passed away on August 16. He became 95 years old. Many people are probably familiar with his books, that were translated to English, Spanish and many other languages. One-Straw Farming is perhaps the best known of Fukuoka-sensei's many works. In 1988 Fukuoka received the Deshikottam Award, India's most prestigious award, and the Philippines' Ramon Magsaysay Award for Public Service. In 1997 he received the Earth Council Award, which honors politicians, businesspersons, scholars, and non-governmental organizations for their contributions to sustainable development.

Schweitzer Speech Energizes the Convention

Mark Warner was tonight's keynote speaker, but it was the raucous Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer who worked the crowd into a frenzy, delivering a kinetic speech about--of all things--energy policy.

It's hard to imagine anybody getting quite that fired up about energy policy in 2004.

Schweitzer's remarks (a prepared transcript of which is available on our site, conveniently) invoked John Kennedy's goal to put Americans on the moon. Energy is the challenge of the 21st century.

"We face a great new challenge, a world energy crisis that threatens our economy, our security, our climate and our way of life," Schweitzer began. The sort of line any politician might utter. But then Schweitzer took it personal, saying McCain's support for expanded drilling was an unrealistic solution even "if you drilled in all of Senator McCain's back yards, even the ones he doesn't know he has."

Kyrgyzstan sees slower growth, starts power cuts

BISHKEK, Aug 27 (Reuters) - Kyrgyzstan said on Wednesday its economy would slow next year and it would introduce electricity rationing to save energy for the coming winter.

The impoverished Central Asian nation relies on hydroelectric plants for its energy needs, but discharged too much water from its main reservoir last winter due to extreme cold. Its grain crops have suffered from drought.

Rush for oil reaches Britain's fields

At first glance Britain's green fields and ancient woodlands have little in common with deserts of Saudi Arabia or the Texas plains - but the oil deep beneath parts of the UK could be the next frontier in the bid to beat the energy crisis.

Saudi gas find confusion

Rumours have circulated for months that South Rub Al Khali (Srak), a Shell/Aramco gas exploration joint venture, may have found commercial quantities of gas in the vast undeveloped desert region while drilling its fourth exploratory well, named Kidan 6.

Shell said today the well is still being drilled and the company hopes to learn more when it is completed later this year.

But earlier today, a Reuters report citing industry sources said Srak had not discovered a new hydrocarbon system, but had merely reconfirmed a 30-year-old Aramco discovery.

Iran warns Israel it will retaliate for any military attack

Tehran - Iran on Wednesday once again warned Israel with retaliation in case of a military attack on its nuclear sites, Mehr news agency reported. It quoted the commander of the paramilitary Revolutionary Guards, General Mohammad Ali Jafari, as saying that if Israel endangered Iran's interests, the Islamic state would make the whole of Israeli territory "unsafe."

Feel The Heat: Behind the headlines, scientists warn that climate change is already hitting New Mexico

?A lot of people are concerned about sea level rise in coastal areas, which is obviously a very serious and legitimate concern, but I think that the kinds of problems we?re projecting here in New Mexico, in some ways are worse?and they are going to hit us faster,? Jim Norton, director of the Environment Protection Division within the New Mexico Environment Department, says.

Norton points to scientists? projections that the southwestern United States will experience longer droughts. Longer droughts, combined with hotter temperatures, will cause greater evaporation?from soils and reservoirs?so the effects of the droughts will also be more severe. ?You can argue,? he says, ?that we?re going to get hit harder and faster than the coastal areas that get so much attention.?

We drive as we live

Did you know more people travel on Saturday at 1 p.m. than during typical rush hours? That only 16 percent of daily trips are to work? Where's everybody going? Given that Americans spend all the money they make, and bury their credit cards in debt to buy more things, "it should come as little surprise," Vanderbilt writes, "that much of our increase in driving stems from trips to the mall."

Perhaps most eye-opening is Vanderbilt's declaration that "the way we drive is responsible for a good part of our traffic problems." That's right, it's not what urban philosophers Lewis Mumford, Jane Jacobs, James Howard Kunstler and, well, my brother and I, in our 1993 book, "Where the Road and the Sky Collide: America Through the Eyes of Its Drivers," have been saying all along -- we are burning in traffic hell for our greedy sins of rampant urban sprawl.

No, what's gumming up the highways are hideously self-absorbed drivers who weave in and out of lanes -- creating a chain reaction of people stepping on the brakes -- desperate to get to some utterly inane appointment for which they think they can't be late.

Oil prices climb above $117 on Hurricane Gustav

LONDON (AFP) - World oil prices rallied Wednesday on the back of concerns that Hurricane Gustav may head for the Gulf of Mexico where many US energy installations are located, analysts said.

The market was meanwhile on tenterhooks ahead of the traditional weekly update on US crude inventories.

New York's main contract, light sweet crude for delivery in October, gained 1.41 dollars to 117.68 dollars per barrel in electronic deals, after Hurricane Gustav had slammed into Haiti on Tuesday.

Energy industry expected to begin Gulf of Mexico evacuations today

Evacuations of oil and gas rigs and platforms in the Gulf of Mexico are expected to begin in earnest today in preparation for Hurricane Gustav.

Royal Dutch Shell began making arrangements on Tuesday to evacuate staff not essential to production or drilling operations.

Energy Price Prediction `More Difficult,' EIA's Caruso Says

(Bloomberg) -- Predicting energy prices is ``more difficult'' now because of the lack of sufficient information from emerging economies, the head of the U.S. Energy Information Administration said.

``No one could've predicted'' recent record energy prices, Guy Caruso, administrator of the agency, said today at a press conference in Washington sponsored by Platts. Caruso, 66, announced earlier this month that he will step down on Sept. 3 as head of the agency, which is the statistical arm of the Energy Department.

Russia coal exporters told to prioritise domestic supply

LONDON (Reuters) - Russian coal exporters were told by Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov to prioritise domestic coal supply for the balance of this year over exports at a meeting held on August 7, coal industry sources said.

Russian power plants have extremely low stocks of coal and the lowest hydro reserves for decades.

There are not enough rail cars available to move domestic coal and coal for export so to avoid power cuts domestic coal supply must be given priority, exporters were told.

UK: MPs call for energy windfall tax

Prime Minister Gordon Brown is facing mounting pressure from Labour MPs for a one-off windfall tax on energy firms which have recorded huge profits.

More than 80, some of them ministerial aides, say the money should go towards helping poor families pay energy bills.

New Arguments For Offshore Drilling

The Santa Barbara Board of Supervisors plans to hold a symbolic vote today in favor of lifting the ban against offshore drilling.

Refreshingly, the Sups aren't repeating the abundantly false claim that offshore drilling will bring down the price of gas at the pump. Instead, they are interested in revenue and jobs new drilling sites could generate. While fears of peak oil are largely responsible for holding the American economy in the doldrums, the weakened economy increases political pressure to look for jobs, revenues?and the very oil many think we won't find.

Ex-BP CEO Browne: Oil Demand, Not Supply Will Peak Oil

STAVANGER -(Dow Jones)- The ex-chief executive of BP PLC John Browne said Tuesday that he expects falling oil demand to bring oil prices down, rather than an increase of supply.

Speaking at the Offshore Northern Seas conference in Stavanger Norway, Browne said: "Oil demand, not supply, will peak oil."

Saudi may face OPEC pressure to trim supply

LONDON (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, may come under pressure from within OPEC ranks to reduce supplies to prevent a further fall in crude prices when the group meets on Sept. 9.

While OPEC is unlikely to change its official supply target at the meeting in Vienna, it is pumping almost 1 million barrels per day (bpd) more than the target largely because of an increase from Saudi Arabia.

ConocoPhillips to sell gas stations for $800 mln

NEW YORK (Reuters) - ConocoPhillips is expected to sell the remainder of its 600 company-owned gasoline stations to PetroSun West LLC for $800 million, according to a source familiar with the deal.

With the sale, ConocoPhillips, which operates the Phillips 66, Conoco and 76 brands in the United States and JET brand in Europe, would become the latest major oil company to exit the low-margin retail business that has been squeezed by surging prices at the pump that had topped $4 per gallon in the United States.

Oversupply of natural gas dulls luster of exploration and production companies

HOUSTON: Independent exploration and production companies have tantalizingly low valuations thanks to a commodity sell-off, but concerns about a supply glut of natural gas in the United States will likely limit near-term investor interest.

Exxon to pay out 75% of Valdez damages

SEATTLE ? ? Exxon Mobil Corp. has agreed to pay out 75 per cent of a $507.5-million (U.S.) damages ruling to settle the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill off Alaska, the Anchorage Daily News reported on Tuesday.

Gazprom Leads Surge in Russian Debt Risk to Five-Month High

(Bloomberg) -- OAO Gazprom led a jump in the cost of protecting Russian companies from default to the highest in almost five months on investor concern the country's military incursion in Georgia will trigger a rise in borrowing costs.

Credit-default swaps on the world's largest natural-gas producer increased 39 basis points to 263 this month, and Moscow-based oil-pipeline operator OAO Transneft rose 28.5 to 260, according to at CMA Datavision prices at 1:15 p.m. in London. Contracts on Russia's government debt climbed 34 to 136, the highest since April 2.

Gunmen kidnap Israeli in Nigerian oil city

PORT HARCOURT, Nigeria - Gunmen kidnapped an Israeli expatriate from his residence in Nigeria's oil hub of Port Harcourt, a security official in the restive Niger Delta region said on Wednesday. The security source, who asked not to be named, said the Israeli was abducted on Tuesday evening. No group has yet claimed responsibility.

More than 200 foreigners have been seized in the Niger Delta, the heart of the country's oil sector, since early 2006. Almost all have been released unharmed.

Canada to sell Obama, McCain on tar sands

DENVER?The Canadian government is embarking on an aggressive sales campaign with the White House candidates to counter the "dirty oil" label that U.S. environmentalists and some politicians are tagging on Canadian exports.

Dow's Liveris argues that innovation, not politics, can solve energy/climate crisis

Fifty percent of the fossil fuel used in the history of man "has been burned since 1985," said Randy Udall, of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil. "Historians are going to look back on this and call it the Big Bonfire."

Advocates for coal, natural gas and conservation all made cases that their commodities, or approaches, could provide the bridge to America's energy future. But Liveris championed an asset that he said Dow Chemical has capitalized on for decades.

"The price point of energy is going upwards, and staying upwards, so we have to put all resources into play," he said. "At Dow, the solution we provide is people. ... I know the innovation capability of this nation.

Putting on the Dog: Celebrating 25 years with Philly?s greenest restaurateur

?I believe very strongly that building sustainable local economies is about our survival in the age of climate change and peak oil, which will increasingly disrupt and weaken long distance supply lines. I?ve seen a huge increase in interest building local economies. People instinctively know that gaining local self-reliance by producing basic needs at home?especially food and energy?is important to our long term health and security."

Europe sets date when deaths overtake births: 7 years

BRUSSELS: Since its historic reunification almost two decades ago, Germany has been easily the European Union's most populous nation, with 20 million more inhabitants than its closest rival.

But by 2050 Britons, who both reproduce more and allow more immigration, are likely to outnumber Germans and within a further 10 years France, too, should have leapfrogged its eastern neighbor in the population rankings.

The findings come in an official EU study, released Tuesday, which concedes for the first time that Europeans will begin their long foreseen demographic decline in just seven years' time - the point at which deaths exceed births.

Boone Pickens Hits Bottom, Bounces Back, Rings Oil Alarm

Having established his credentials, Pickens moves on to his management tips -- ``help, don't hinder'' -- and a blunt summary of why we need to accept that the world is running out of oil.

``The Saudis claim they have 260 billion barrels in reserve,'' he writes. ``I don't believe them.''

U.S. wind power strangled by antiquated power grid

WASHINGTON: When the builders of the Maple Ridge Wind Farm spent $320 million to erect nearly 200 windmills in upstate New York, the idea was to get paid for producing electricity. But at times, regional electric lines have been so congested that Maple Ridge has been forced to shut down even with a brisk wind blowing.

That is a symptom of a broad national problem. Expansive dreams about renewable energy, like Al Gore's hope of replacing all fossil fuels in a decade, are bumping up against the reality of a power grid that cannot handle the new demands.

The dirty secret of clean energy is that while generating it is getting easier, moving it to market is not.

Japan firms to work on solar-powered ship

TOKYO: The race to go green has taken to the high seas with two Japanese companies saying they would begin work on the world's first ship to have propulsion engines partially powered by solar energy.

Japan's biggest shipping line Nippon Yusen KK and Nippon Oil Corp said solar panels capable of generating 40 kilowatts of electricity would be placed on top of a 60,000 tonne car carrier to be used by Toyota Motor Corp.

Former president warns of global warming

Speaking to a panel of other ex-world leaders, Clinton said the real issue is whether democracies can deliver after elections are over.

American and world leaders must return their focus to great challenges like global warming once their fascination with the U.S. presidential campaign ends, Clinton said.

Weather risk hedging seen boosting global economy

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Insuring against weather-related calamity in this era of global warming might seem the work of bean counters and actuaries.

But a study by WeatherBill, an Internet firm offering weather-related risk cover for individuals, as well as companies and governments, says the global economy could expand by up to $258 billion if such contracts were more widely purchased.

The greatest failure of thought in human history

Earth is warming because humans, primarily in industrialized nations, suffer from systems blindness. We have failed to recognize the effects of our insatiable use of fossil fuels, massive resource consumption, and huge emission of waste, including greenhouse gasses, on the ecological and social systems we depend on for life. That blindness threatens all life forms today and in the future.

Overcoming systems blindness requires a shift to what can be called "sustainable thinking." A growing number of private and public organizations and everyday citizens have shown that it is possible to think sustainably. They use a four-step process: discover, dream, design, and act.

One of the classic ecological modeling problems is the oscillating populations of predators and their prey in an ecosystem--as prey population rises, predator population follows suit until prey population begins to fall off, resulting in a subsequent drop in predator population (illustrated below). The same dynamic also applies, to some degree, to the relationship between oil price (prey) and marginal production/demand destruction/energy policy (predator). This post will explore that relationship and its ability to help us avoid poor energy policy choices.

Classic predator-prey system

The simplest predator-prey dynamic is described by the Lotka-Volterra system of differential equations. The exact values obtained by this system of equations is predicated on several assumptions--such as exponential growth of a prey population when a predator is absent and that predators can consume infinite quantities of prey. I don't propose that these assumptions apply to oil, nor that the Lotka-Volterra equations can accurately predict either oil price or production. Instead, I propose that the relationship dynamic is analogous between the general predator-prey model and the behavior of oil price, demand destruction, marginal production, and energy policy choices.

Seeing Oil as a Predator-Prey System

When oil price rises, there is an increasing incentive to 1) reduce elastic demand, 2) produce more oil, and 3) make public policy choices that mitigate the impact of high oil prices (or at least use it as a lever to pander to a voting population or enrich oneself). Likewise, to the extent that each of these three results bears out, it exerts downward pressure on oil price due to relatively greater production and relatively lower demand. Lower prices, in turn, remove the incentive to reduce demand and to produce more oil--especially where the lower price impacts the economic viability of marginal production.

Since there is an uncertain lag time between rising prices and reducing demand/increasing marginal production, it seems likely to me that the sequential corrections in price and demand/production will overshoot and create oscillations similar to the Lotka-Volterra predator prey model. This may not be the case if oil production potential and cost was a constant (as well as human population, economic growth, etc.), but the uncertainty created by a background environment of peak oil will make it very difficult for these oscillations to eventually settle at an equilibrium.

To some extent, we are seeing exactly this effect in America today. As prices rose steadily from $110/barrel to $147/barrel in early Summer, national attention zeroed in on "America's Oil Crisis," as a perpetual counter on CNBC labeled it. The stage for much of today's Presidential contest was set during this period. As oil prices dropped, and CNBC's "Oil Crisis" ticker unceremoniously disappeared, I've actually heard more than one person comment that "I guess I don't have to sell the SUV." While the macroeconomic situation adds a complicating wrinkle to the simplified predator-prey chart above, we may have already entered the phase where ramped up production plans are being scrapped, efficiency measures postponed, and political will to enact bold energy policy measures fade.

Conclusion

At the end of the day, this is a very crude model. It is not intended to predict actual price or production, but rather to illustrate how production and price may interact similarly to predator and prey populations in an ecosystem. The importance of this analogy is that it may help us to avoid certain policy mistakes (or at least be aware of them). When the oscillations of price and demand/production are superimposed on top of geological depletion and geopolitical feedback loops, the resulting volatility effectively masks the underlying fundamentals (see Figure 2, above). This presents several problems, each of which may be more avoidable if the medium-term fluctuations in price, production, and demand are seen as oscillations on top of a very worrying underlying trend of peak oil.

At the risk of invoking the problematic "awareness" issue, the problem of peak oil cannot be effectively mitigated through political or economic choices until it is understood. (how effective this mitigation can be, even if the problem is fully understood, is debatable, but at least some mitigation is possible.) Awareness of the underlying problem, in turn, is being masked by the oscillations of the price/demand/production "predator-prey" dynamic. If individual consumers realize that price drops (at least relative to purchasing power) are temporary in an environment of geological depletion, and if policy makers learn to effectively communicate this point, then we will be positioned to best mitigate the effects of peak oil on a personal, regional, and global scale.

If, on the other hand, we do not see through the fog of these predator-prey oscillations, then we may miss our best opportunity to adapt to the long-term energy reality. Technophiles may be right--efficiency gains and high-tech substitutes may allow us to continue "business as usual" indefinitely. While I don't share their optimism, my overriding concern is that the lure of their sales pitch--especially in an environment like today's where prices are dropping and production is (arguably) rising--will convince us not to make the difficult choices about changing "business as usual" now and force us to make much more difficult choices later.