Renewable Energy- The topic of sustainable, renewable forms of energy

The price of renewable power contracts signed by California utilities more than doubled from 2003 through 2011 but has now started to plunge, according to a long-awaited state report issued Friday.

British Energy Secretary Chris Huhne resigned on Friday after learning he would face criminal charges for allegedly lying to police, a fall from grace that could tweak the dynamics of the coalition government and weaken its environmental agenda.

Federal regulators on Friday said they're seeking offshore wind developers who want to build inside a newly redrawn zone of ocean off Massachusetts, which they pitched as a prime spot for wind farms.

Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell remains at odds with President Obama over the issue of energy, even as Obama moved Thursday to fast track a critical piece of McDonnell's own energy agenda.

It's been nearly seven years since the federal government first instituted the most recent series of energy tax credits to encourage consumers to install and use energy-efficient alternatives for home heating and cooling.

There are many unintended consequences as fuel supplies become more scarce and expensive. (With a h/t to Rune Likvern), I see that those Greeks who are being starved of affordable fuel are starting to chop trees down for warmth and income. This sort of desperation has devastated the countryside all over Albania, Africa, and Asia, and it is extremely difficult to stop the practice from spreading or to recover from it. The world expects that fuel must be available at an affordable price, and one of the ongoing questions is whether it will continue to be.

In that regard, BP has just released its Annual Energy Outlook 2030, examining how the world energy supply, and mix, will change in the years up to 2030. The booklet is an update from the study released last year, and reviewed at the time. This year the introductory speech by Bob Dudley focused on energy demand in China and India, Middle East exports, and transport fuel demand. BP sees overall energy demand growing some 40% over the next two decades, with virtually all growth coming from the developing countries. More than half will come from China and India alone. And of that energy, they anticipate that the supply will break out as follows:

Demand will grow across virtually all sections, apart from that of transportation in the OECD, which is expected to fall over the next two decades.

Oil will still be the basic source for transportation fuel, and though growth in demand is anticipated to be only 1% a year that turns into another 16 million barrels a day by 2030. One has to be careful therefore in assessing the contributions of the different sources of fuel, as percentages, since, while these may be falling relative to the whole, the actual volumes that are being consumed may still be rising.

On a minor note, the role of coalsurpasses that of oil some 20-years from now, while last year, the two were about equivalent. Even though BP expects that by 2020, coal's share of the global market will begin to fall, though less steeply now than they anticipated last year. And BP expects that some of the change in the mix will be brought about by technical change.

Technology underlies many of the trends apparent in this report. For example, the supply of gas has been accelerated as a result of technologies that unlock shale gas and tight gas. In the transport sector, we believe the efficiency of the internal combustion engine is likely to double over the next 20 years. And that will save roughly a Saudi Arabia's worth of production. By 2030, we expect hybrids to account for most car sales and roughly 30% of all vehicles on the road.

The interesting question is, of course, where BP thinks that all the oil will come from. Last year, when they projected the same growth rate, the sources were expected to be Saudi Arabia and Iraq. This year, they project that more will come from Deep water, rising from the 9% of supply anticipated last year to 10% in the current review (currently it is at about 7%). But, more interesting, is that they see the roles of energy efficiency and technical exploitation of indigenous resources leading to a great change in the international fuel market:

we foresee both the Americas and Eurasia - or Europe including Russia and the former Soviet Union - achieving self-sufficiency in energy, while the Middle East will generate surplus supply for Asia’s surplus demand. In the US for example, oil imports have dropped by about one-third since peaking in 2005 and are likely to be half of today’s level in 2030. The US now produces over 50% of the liquid fuel it uses – as opposed to importing the majority, as was the case a few years ago.

For the U.S. and European pictures to change as much as they anticipate, cellulosic ethanol still appears to be the flag pole on which they have hung their future, and in which they remain heavily invested. Yet when one looks at the make-up of the sources for fuels in 2030, as projected this year over that suggested last year, there has been a slight gain in overall volumes required.

The interesting changes come in Non-OPEC growth, with the contribution from bio-fuels diminishing, growth in US production replacing that anticipated from the FSU (wonder where that went?) and a drop in the Non-OPEC declines. To answer my own question, I suspect that the growth in FSU supplies (which I am covering elsewhere) has been melded into the need to sustain production at current levels, and that may be a part of the reason for the drop in the Non-OPEC declines.

When one considers that BP are forecasting an increase in demand of 8 mbd from China, 3.5 mbd from India, and 4 mbd from the Middle East, with the non-OPEC decline being at 6 mbd, there is a total of 21.5 mbd of new production being forecast, over the next 20 years. And of this, 12 mbd will come from OPEC, namely Saudi Arabia and Iraq, but with a significant contribution - 4 mbd - from NGLs.

At which point I cough gently and draw your attention to recent remarks (h/t Stuart Staniford) of the Saudi Oil Minister, who suggested that they have flexibility up to a full production of 12.5 mbd, with a little time; but, on the other hand, they will drop production to keep the price over $100 a barrel. And so there is a suspicion that as Libyan oil production returns to normal, Saudi production may fall in balance. The upper limit on Saudi production had earlier been set at 12 mbd, but both these figures are now coming under increasing question, particularly since Aramco has had problems in finding a market for their heavier crudes, which make up almost all of the surplus over current production. (And the Saudi refineries to treat them are still a couple of years away). Yet, if the refineries to treat those oils do come on line, and that increases Saudi capability by 1 mbd of marketable product from Manifa, it will still only bring them up to about 11 mbd. It may be that they will raise production that much, to offset increasing domestic use, and maintain the volume of exports that they need to sustain their economy. But how long they can do that, relying on their ageing major reservoirs remains, of course, the other big question. BP anticipates that they will increase production by 3 mbd over current levels, and still have a cushion of a million or so barrels a day.

And as for Iraq, the country exported 2.14 mbd in December having risen 275 kbd or 14.4% over the year. Whether that can be sustained in the face of continued troubles is not clear. The Al-Ahdab field has come on stream and is ahead of schedule, at 120 kbd, though it may well be that all that oil ends up in China. BP, however, are assuming that Iraq can double production, to 6 mbd, by 2030.

Growth in production in the Americas is anticipated to come from the oil sands (up 2.2 mbd); the Brazilian deep waters ( another 2 mbd) and U.S. shale oil (at 2.2 mbd). Total biofuels growth of 3.5 mbd balances out the anticipated supply and demand at just under 105 mbd.

The continued growth in natural gas is divided into two parts, that which is shipped through pipelines, and that sent as LNG in tankers. Total demand will rise about 50% with the Middle East, China and India providing most of the increase in demand, and with supply coming from a number of sources.

The growth in use will be across all sectors of the economy, but if I do an eyeball comparison it seems as though there is a significant drop in LNG increase over the numbers that BP were using last year. Back then they were seeing an increase of around 70 bcf/day over the interval; now, while they are projecting a growth of 4.5% p.a., the overall volume is somewhat less.

Coal demand will continue to rise, largely due to increased demand for power and industrial use in China and India, while western nations slowly ease away from the fuel.

BP summarizes the changes that they have made, relative to last year’s forecast as:

Overall, it looks to be a rather optimistic view of the future.

During the past seven years, TheOilDrum.com has hosted analysis and discussion surrounding the possibility and implications of a near term peak in global oil production and importance of energy to society in general. Out of the ~8,500 articles posted here (all searchable by keyword in upper left), the list below comprises what each author considered some of their most relevant content.

The list is in alphabetical order, by last name of Oil Drum contributor. Click on the author's name to go to their list of selected articles. At the end of each section, a link is given to the complete list of all articles by that author.

List of Authors

Gail the Actuary

Ugo Bardi

Art Berman

Jason Bradford

Joules Burn

François Cellier

David Clarke

Samuel Foucher

Nicole Foss

Big Gav

Prof. Goose

Nate Hagens

Phil Hart

Rembrandt Koppelaar

Rune Likvern

Euan Mearns

David Murphy

Heading Out

Jérôme à Paris

Engineer-Poet

Robert Rapier

Luis de Sousa

Stuart Staniford

Jeff Vail

Chris Vernon

List of Articles

Gail the Actuary

Oil Limits, Recession, and Bumping Up Against the Growth Ceiling.
Write up of an introductory presentation, explaining our how limited oil supply is causing recession and lower economic growth.
Are We Reaching Limits to Growth?
Looks at our current financial and other problems, in relationship to Limits to Growth (from the 1972 book by that name).
IEO 2011: A Misleadingly Optimistic Energy Forecast by the EIA
Explains why the latest official forecast of the US Energy Information Administration appears optimistic.
Kidding Ourselves About Middle East/North Africa Oil Production.
Why claims about future high oil production from Middle East/North Africa are likely overstated.
The Link Between Peak Oil and Peak Debt - Part 1
Why limited oil supply is likely to be associated with declining debt availability.
What's Behind Egypt's Problems?
Explains the connection between declining oil exports and Egypt's "Arab Spring."
Is It Really Possible to Decouple Energy Growth from GDP Growth?
Explores why growth in energy efficiency seems to have stopped after 2000. Also see Thoughts on Why Energy Use and CO2 Emissions are Rising as Fast as GDP
The US Electric Grid: Will it be Our Undoing? ? Revisited
Why the US electrical transmission system has so many challenges, and the many obstacles to improving it.
Social Security and Medicare Funding Issues: Even Worse when One Considers Resource Constraint
Why Social Security and Medicare funding issues are even worse, when Peak Oil is considered.
What Can We Learn from Gift Economies?
Campfire post relating to a system where individuals gain status not by what they have, but by what they give away.
There is plenty of oil but . . .
There is a huge amount of oil that theoretically can be extracted, but the question is whether the cost will be cheap enough for us to be able to afford to extract it. If the oil is too expensive to extract, the shortage of oil seems to cause a recession, similar to what we are having now.
Scientific American's Path to Sustainability: Let's Think about the Details
Scientific American presents "A Path to Sustainable Energy by 2030" in its November 2010 issue. I explain why it wouldn't work.
Some Cautionary Thoughts about Wind
Offers ten reasons why wind is not as an attractive an option as many think it is.
Delusions of Finance: Where We are Headed
Explanation of why my financial forecasts at the beginning of 2008 turned out to be correct.
Peak Oil and the Financial Markets: A Forecast for 2008
A financial forecast for 2008 that in retrospect has proven accurate.
Our World Is Finite: Is This a Problem?
Post written before I became an Oil Drum staff member that lays out may of the major issues that I continue to write about.
Read more posts by Gail the Actuary. (Real name, Gail Tverberg)
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Ugo Bardi

"Peak Civilization": The Fall of the Roman Empire
A post attempting to apply system dynamics to the fall of the Roman Empire which - as far as I know - has not been done, so far.
Cassandra's curse: how "The Limits to Growth" was demonized
With its scenarios of civilization collapse, the book shocked the world perhaps more than Cassandra had shocked her fellow Trojan citizens when she had predicted the fall of their city to the Achaeans. Just as Cassandra was not believed, so it was for the "Limits to Growth" which, today, is still widely seen as a thoroughly flawed study, wrong all along.
The Universal Mining Machine
Why can?t we build a universal mining machine here, on Earth, and stop worrying about running out of mineral resources?
Mind-sized Hubbert
What is it, exactly, that causes production peaks for oil and for other non renewable resources?
The dark side of coal - some historical insights on energy and the economy
In this post, I start to tell the story of coal in Italy and how the fortunes of the country went in parallel with those of coal well until mid 20th century.
The church, the peak, and my old watch
A post about leaving something that lasts a long time and that doesn't need precious resources that can't be replaced.
The post-peak car
A fantastic account of how a 1970s Fiat 500 has been retrofitted with batteries and an electric motor to create the Post Peak Car.
How to Drive your Elephant - Dealing with Complex Problems
How elephant driving may be seen as as a metaphor for controlling complex systems.
Peak Minerals
A post taken from a report co-authored with Marco Pagani which examines the world production of 57 minerals reported in the database of the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and makes the case for the peak and decline of many of these minerals in the near future.
Peak Caviar
"Peak Caviar" is another confirmation of how common the "Hubbert" behavior is. It doesn't matter if a resource is theoretically renewable, as sturgeons and whales are. If sturgeons or whales are killed much faster than they can reproduce, then they behave as a non renewable resource; just as crude oil.
Read more posts by Ugo Bardi
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Arthur E. Berman

Arthur Berman talks about Shale Gas
McMoRan Davy Jones Gas Discovery
Co-written with Joshua H. Rosenfeld, this post looks at a significant discovery in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico by the McMoRan Exploration Company that may contain 2-6 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas reserves.
Shale Gas?Abundance or Mirage? Why The Marcellus Shale Will Disappoint Expectations
Shale gas plays in the United States are commercial failures and shareholders in public exploration and production (E&P) companies are the losers. This conclusion falls out of a detailed evaluation of shale-dominated company financial statements and individual well decline curve analyses.
BP Macondo Blowout - Static Top Kill vs. Bottom Kill: Weighing the Risks
A post co-written with William Semple.
Is the Drilling Moratorium Long Enough? No, Not Really
The key issues around the drilling moratorium as I see them.
What caused the Deepwater Horizon disaster?
The blowout and oil spill on the Deepwater Horizon in the Gulf of Mexico was caused by a flawed well plan that did not include enough cement between the 7-inch production casing and the 9 7/8-inch protection casing. The presumed blowout preventer (BOP) failure is an important but secondary issue.
ExxonMobil?s Acquisition of XTO Energy: The Fallacy of the Manufacturing Model in Shale Plays
Most analysts believe that the ExxonMobil acquisition of XTO Energy (XTO) represents a dramatic shift in strategy by the premier exploration and production (E&P) company, and a validation of shale plays. It is neither. The move represents a considered and deliberate choice that acknowledges diminished opportunities for the oil giant to add and replace reserves.
Read more posts by Arthur Berman
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Jason Bradford

The Thermodynamics of Local Foods
I wrote this in response to a slew of media attention that argued against local foods. However, based on thermodynamics, only a predominantly local food system will be sustainable in the long run.
Ecological Economics and the Food System
This is a summary of energy use in the U.S. food system placed in the context of ecological economics. Our current food system is structured inappropriately for long-term viability, and the kinds of shifts required to make it more enduring are discussed.
Save it for the Combine
Few people understand how critical certain technologies are to their survival and way of life. The combine allows one person to harvest the food for hundreds, saving enormous labor while using liquid fuels. I argue that any rationing of liquid fuels or use of biofuels be prioritized for the combine.
The Food System and Public Policy
Many in the U.S. like to think we live in a free market economy. But when it comes to development of the food system public policy explains much of what we see.
The Food System and Resilience
Resilience is a concept from ecology that can be applied to any complex system. When the current food system is examined using a resilience framework it is found to be very fragile. The essay concludes by outlining the possible emergence of more resilient food systems given new economic and energetic realities.
Energy Descent and Agricultural Population
This article includes a graph that combines data on energy use and percent rural population, showing that more energy in a society lowers the proportion engaged in farming. Given the shape of this relationship, can we make some educated speculations about shifting labor demographics in highly industrialized nations during energy descent?
Scenario 2020: The Future of Food in Mendocino County
I believe there?s the possibility of a near-term collapse of complex societies given a financial shock, perhaps precipitated or exacerbated by political and energy crises. This photo essay conveys this potential from an imagined future, with an emphasis on the food system.
I have an interest in economics, in the broad sense, of how and why people and societies chose to invest and consume, and what this means for resources and the environment. The following three essays share a common theme: resources are only constrained in a world with exponentially growing demand for more stuff. Reducing demand is more important than increasing supply, and ultimately we have no choice. However, conscientious curtailment comes up against both engrained pyscho-social reward systems, which are largely explored in the first two essays, and the structure of our financial system, which is touched upon in the third.
Finding Healthy Addictions
Dopamine Returned on Energy Invested (DREI)?
Advice to Pres. Obama( #6): Beware the Hungry Ghosts
Read more posts by Jason Bradford
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Joules Burn

Khurais Me A River
An early look at the development of the Khurais oilfield in Saudi Arabia using satellite imagery, reviewing past efforts to produce from the field.
Ghawar Numerology: Drilling in Uthmaniyah
An animated history of the drilling sequence in one part of the Ghawar oil field in Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia's Ghawar Isn't Sinking (but has apparently moved)
A critical look at satellite imagery analysis which reached some faulty conclusions regarding the behavior of the Ghawar field upon depletion.
Abqaiq and Eat It Too
A look at recent developments in the giant Abqaiq field in Saudi Arabia using satellite imagery combined with published reports.
Local Scientist Splits Water, Saves World, Gets On TV
A skeptical look at recent claims of a breakthrough in water electrolysis to produce hydrogen.
Five Easy Leases: Ghawar's Discovery Wells
An in-depth look at the first wells drilled in the five operational areas for the Ghawar field, including their current status.
Who Killed the Electric Gas Tank?
A look at claims of a breakthrough in ultracapacitors for energy storage in electric vehicles.
Saudi Aramco Loses Count, Drills Too Many Wells In Ghawar
An satellite imagery analysis of Saudi drilling activity in the southern-most part of the Ghawar field, showing that more has been going on than publicly revealed.
Lessons Left Unlearnt From 2003 Gulf of Mexico Near-Spill
A look in the US Materials Management Service datafiles revealing a number of accidents and near misses which preceded the massive BP spill in the Gulf of Mexico.
Crude Confessions: Massive Saudi Oil Spill in 1993?
A look at how Saudi oil is transported out of the country in the context of claims of a secret oil spill.
Read more posts by Joules Burn
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François Cellier

Ecological Footprint, Energy Consumption, and the Looming Collapse
This article explores dynamic relations governing population growth, resource depletion, and world economics by means of a few simple modeling and simulation exercises.
Is the 2000 Watt Society Sustainable in Switzerland?
In this presentation, we discuss whether the 2000 Watt Society is at all sustainable, and if so, what it will take to keep energy supply at that level after the end of ample and cheap fossil fuels.
The Slavery of Oil
A review of a proposed methodology that would allow me to quantify the price level of crude oil at which our economies will stall.
Read more posts by François Cellier
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David Clarke

The Failure of Networked Systems: The Repercussions of Systematic Risk Revisited
Cascading collapse and why the corporate drive towards increasing efficiencies could be driving our interacting networked systems towards this mode of collapse.
The Networking of Resource Production: Do the Networks Give us Warnings when They are About to Fail?
The flaw in the techno-cornucopian dream: Modeling why and how a networked resource-extraction system fails.
Read more posts by David Clarke
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Samuel Foucher

Analysis of Decline Rates
This post offers a kind of reverse engineering of what numbers could be behind the long and detailed IEA decline analysis in their last report (2008 IEA WEO). A tentative decline structure for the post-peak Super-Giant and Giants oilfields is offered as well as a possible scenario for future production.
Peak Demand or Peak Consumption? A Look at OECD Oil Demand
In this post I show that the key driver behind the oil price increase since 2002 has been excess demand combined with unresponsive supply.
Peak Oil Update - July 2009: Production Forecasts and EIA Oil Production Numbers
An update on the latest production numbers from the EIA along with graphs/charts of different oil production forecasts.
Estimating the World Production Decline Rates from the Megaproject Forecasts
Having a good estimate of the decline rate of the resource base (most estimates are ranging between 2 and 6%/year) is fundamental for the precision of supply forecasts derived from megaproject database.
Saudi Arabia: An Attempt to Link Oil Discoveries, Proven Reserves and Production Data
This article is an attempt to apply the Hybrid Shock Model (HSM) on Saudi Arabia's oil production. In a nutshell, the HSM is trying to model the observed production profile from the discovery curve by simulating the different phases involved in the development of oilfields (initial discovery, planning, build, maturity).
Why We (Really) May Have Entered an Oil Production Plateau
We know that some countries (around 56) have seen their production peaked (also called type III depletion). The remaining group consists of 17 countries that have the potential to grow or maintain their current production (the type II group). I propose to apply the HL technique only on the total production from the the type III group and try to assess the future production decline coming from that group.
An Update on Mexico's Oil Production--The Rapid Collapse of Cantarell by the Numbers
Last year, I expressed my concerns about the eventual impact of a rapid collapse of Cantarell on Mexico's oil production. The last production numbers from PEMEX seems to confirm the rapid decline of Cantarell as well as the inability of the Mexican to rapidly bring new production online.
The Loglet Analysis
Most peakoilers on this site have been introduced to the logistic curve through the famous prediction of King Hubbert on the Lower-48 production. Fewer maybe knows that curve fitting techniques have been extensively applied by people that we may qualify as cornucopians. Ironically, the logistic curve is also used as a prediction tool for market share and technology substitution.
A Different Way to Perform the Hubbert Linearization
A quick post about a different manipulation of the logistic differential equation. By using the first derivative, we get a new way to perform the Hubbert linearization. Some results are given on Norway and the US oil production.
Norway and the Parabolic Fractal Law
Norway can be considered as the poster child of the Hubbert curve modeling approach with a production profile that is remarkably close to the logistic curve.
Read more posts by Samuel Foucher
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Nicole Foss

Entropy and Empire This article is a discussion of the rise and fall of empire (in thermodynamic terms) and the process of imperial succession.
The Resurgence of Risk Resurgence of Risk is a description of the developing credit crunch from its inception - an explanation of how we arrived at this financial crisis and where we are headed.
Smart Metering and Smarter Metering Electricity metering is a significant means of addressing excess demand, but the high-tech metering solutions being proposed miss many opportunities because they pay no attention to psychological drivers.
A MacKenzie Valley Pipedream? This piece assesses the prospects for the construction of a MacKenzie Valley pipeline through the Canadian north.
Anaerobic Digestion in Ontario - A Regulatory Obstacle Course Renewable energy technologies wishing to connect to the grid face significant regulatory obstacles that add so much to project costs that project viability is threatened.
Read more posts by Nicole Foss
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Big Gav

Concentrating On The Important Things - Solar Thermal Power
While we spend a lot of time talking about traditional energy sources based on depleting resources that are extracted from the ground, I think its important to remember that the fastest growing sources of energy are solar and wind, and that these will never run out.
Tapping The Source: The Power Of The Oceans
A post examining the use of artificial islands to collect wind, wave, ocean current and solar power in the tropics, along with a more unusual energy source - harnessing the difference in water temperatures between the warm surface and the cold depths using a technique called OTEC (Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion).
Geothermal Energy: Geothermia
Crossposted from my blog Peak Energy as the subject of geothermal power has cropped up in the comments a few times lately.
Floating Offshore Wind Power
An update on a post I did last year on the potential for floating offshore wind power, which looked at a number of different prototypes at various stages of development.
The Limits To Scenario Planning
A review of some common misconceptions about the Limits to Growth book.
Iraq's Oil: The Greatest Prize Of All
In this post I'll outline why I believe that Iraq probably has the world's largest oil reserves - or, as Daniel Yergin once said of the middle east, it is "the greatest single prize in all history".
Natural Gas In Australia - How Long Will It Last?
In this post I have a look at how much gas Australia has and how long it will last under a variety of scenarios.
Coal Seam Gas In Australia
In this post I look at recent events in the gas industry and what they mean for Australian gas production in future.
The Hydrogen Economy and Peak Platinum
A comprehensive review of the issues involved in the "hydrogen economy".
Hubbert: King Of The Technocrats
In this post I explore the Technocracy movement and Hubbert's role in it.
Locabucks: Are local currencies a way to escape the liquidity trap?
I look at the concept of local currencies (or "locabucks" as I'm now dubbing them), an idea which has its roots in the Great Depression as a mechanism for escaping the liquidity trap - and thus might be relevant again in the not-too distant future if present trends continue.
Terra Preta: Biochar and the MEGO Effect
In this post I have a look at modern day techniques to produce terra preta (often called biochar or agrichar) which have the potential to increase soil fertility, generate energy and sequester carbon all at the same time.
Buckminster Fuller's Critical Path
A review of Buckminster Fuller's last work, Critical Path.
Is It Time For a 4 Day Working Week?
In this post I look at various proposals to reduce the amount of time we spend at work, as a way of addressing energy, environmental and other issues facing us.
Peak Oil And The Tea Party Movement
In this post I have a look at the boost this (peak oil) is likely to give to populist politics and some of the possibilities for addressing this.
Read more posts by Big Gav
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Prof. Goose

A Pretty Stunning Graph of World Cement Production (and China is Certainly Using It)
This post updates Stuart's post about this two years ago (and yes, it's still a graph that will blow you away!) with two more years of USGS cement data, 2006 and 2007.
From the Editor's Desk: Peak Oil, Heretical Thought, Complexity, and the Future of The Oil Drum
Lately, I have been thinking a lot about the direction of The Oil Drum. Much of my thinking on this set of ideas has been brought about by some soul-searching, trying to understand the problems we face as a community, and then figuring out how to "positively push the future."
Peak Oil, Persuasion, and the World Meme
What insights can we claim from psychology to get those we care about, and even those we don't, to dig deeper to get to an understanding of the pillars of the problems we face, instead of trying to buy aluminum siding for a house slowly falling in on itself?
Will Canada Fuel Fortress America?
Will Canada complacently allow the US to pillage her resources as energy supplies become more scarce?
Why the US Political System Is Unable to React to Peak Oil: Institutions
I thought I would bring some pieces of the political puzzle together into a post on why I believe the US, at least at the federal level, will be overly slow to react to the problems of peak oil in both the short and long term.
Was That Really Five Years?
A summary and some thoughts about the fifth year of the Oil Drum's existence.
The Oil Drum Celebrates Its First Year Today
Read more posts by Prof. Goose (Real name, Kyle Saunders)
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Nate Hagens

The Psychological and Evolutionary Roots of Resource Consumption A (longish) exploration of how our evolved neural wetware predisposes us to compete for status and also allows us to be hijacked by novelty items/activities, many of which use alot of energy.
A Net Energy Parable: Why is ERoEI Important? A story about how energy return on investment impacts an imaginary society of Sasquatches - highlighting the importance of biohpysical metrics for a civilization.
Peak Oil: A View from Planet Talos An alien perspective on the resource depletion/human nature intersection.
Living for the Moment While Devaluing the Future An examination of why we have evolved mechanisms to steeply favor the present over the future and why this is relevant to questions of resource depletion and environmental problems.
Peak Oil - Whom to Believe CERAiously-Part 1 Highlights of the main differences between the energy cornucopians and those predicting a near term peak in oil production.
Peak Oil - Why Smart Folks Disagree Part 2 More detail on the above post on supply side differences between energy optimists and realists.
Peak Oil - Believe it or Not - Part 3 An overview of human cognitive biases that contribute to disagreement on resource depletion/climate change.
Can We Be Happy Using Less Energy? Uhh Yes! An look at decreasing returns to more consumtion.
Old Sunlight vs Ancient Sunlight - An Analysis of Home Heating and Wood Measuring the scale of US standing forest relative to US fossil fuel use for heat.
".......Dammit - We Wasted a Day of Sunlight"
Peak Oil, IHS Data and The Broken Clock
Peak Oil and Reflexivity and Peak Oil Soros theory of reflexivity, in light of oil depletion.
Hedge Funds, Hurricanes and Energy Markets An overview of volatility and the small size of energy markets relative to financial capital.
The 2008 IEA WEO Review (#1 in a Series) The first in a series examining the claims of the IEA annual energy report.
Advice to Obama (#2) Yes We Can But Will We? A letter to the new President, outlining biophysical (supply) and evolutionary (demand) type thinking.
Campfire
What Do We Tell Our Children A letter I wrote to an 8 year old boy who asked about oil running out.
I Don't Know A short piece looking at why we are so confident, even when we know very little.
I Dream of GINI - Wealth Inequality During Resource Depletion
Peak Oil, Peak Credit and Investments - So What the Hell Does One Do? An initial pass at rewriting the Capital Asset Pricing Model assumptions
Whither The Oil Drum? An introspection on the purpose of sites like this, when the meme of peak oil has been generally accepted.
Enter the Elephant A look at why facts matter very little in changing peoples behavior.
2010: The Year for Making ContactNew Years resolutions for myself, in light of current conditions.
Dear Candidate-What Will You Do if Growth is Over?
Read more posts by Nate Hagens
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Phil Hart

Meet Trev: A two-seater renewable energy vehicle
I believe there is instead a bright future for a spectrum of 'micro' electric vehicles, from battery powered bicycles up to compact size cars, including this new concept car named Trev (Two-seater Renewable Energy Vehicle).
International Energy Agency calls 'Peak' on OECD Oil Demand
In World Energy Outlook 2009, the International Energy Agency seems to have dropped a bombshell that has been quietly (and politely) ignored.
The Economics of Volatile Oil Prices
Considering the fundamental nature of oil supply and demand provides a coherent explanation not just for the rapid rise in oil prices, but also the dramatic fall.
The 2008 IEA WEO - Oil Reserves and Resources
Despite significant changes, the 2008 IEA report still relies on inflated estimates of reserves from OPEC countries, overplays the contribution of reserves growth due to technology and predicts the reversal of a decades long trend of declining oil discoveries.
Oil, House Prices, Credit? Three parts of the same story
The long forgotten 'oil crisis' of just a few months ago has been replaced by a full blown 'credit crisis' - related events that represent the unravelling of half a century of unsustainable trends in oil consumption and debt.
High-Tech Hitchhiking
Could a hitchhiking scheme for the iPhone era work in practice and change attitudes to hitching a ride?
How Technology Increases Oil Production
How can you double something and still have ten times less than you started with? The answer to this question will help us reassess claims that advances in oil field technology will postpone the peak in global oil production.
Oil Reserves: Where Ghawar goes, the rest of OPEC follows
In May 2007, the work of Stuart Staniford and Euan Mearns culminated in a new and unprecedented assessment of oil reserves in Ghawar, the world's largest oil field. This article combines their assessment with additional information sources, to produce a revised estimate of reserves in Saudi Arabia and the other OPEC countries.
Read more posts by Phil Hart
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Rembrandt Koppelaar

Carbon Capture and Storage: Economic Costs Revisited
The effects on coal power plant economics of CO2 emissions capture.
Carbon Capture and Storage: Energy Costs Revisited
The effects on coal power plant economics of CO2 emissions capture.
A primer on reserve growth part 1
What is reserve growth and why it is so difficult to measure?
A primer on reserve growth part 2
A summary of various reserve growth studies.
A primer on reserve growth part 3
A discussion on the reserve growth figures in the USGS World Petroleum Assessment 2000.
Are Reserves of the Largest US Coal Field Overstated by 50%?
A summary of the USGS 2009 reserve assessment of the largest U.S. coal field, Gilette in Wyoming.
Read more posts by Rembrandt Koppelaar
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Rune Likvern

Europe and Natural Gas - Are Tough Choices Ahead?
In this post, I present some graphs showing European historical natural gas consumption and supply, along with my estimates of future consumption and supply.
Trends in World Oil Supply/Consumption and Net Exports/Imports
In this post I briefly present the results from my analysis of absolute and relative trends in world oil (all liquids) supply, consumption, net exports and net imports between 1980 and 2009.
Has OECD oil consumption peaked?
I examine similarities and differences in oil consumption patterns of OECD and Non-OECD countries and offer my view as to what the future may hold.
IEA WEO 2008 - NGLs to the Rescue?
In this post, I will document that there is good reason to believe that the IEA WEO 2008 projections in the reference scenario overshoots the likely world production of NGLs by as much as 35 - 50 % by 2030.
Has Fossil Fuel Consumption Within EU Peaked?
As this post will show the likelihood that the EU?s fossil fuel consumption has peaked, back in 1979, is now very real. It will also compare the degree of net fossil fuel self-sufficiency between the EU and the USA as of 2007.
Why UK Natural Gas Prices Will Move North of 100p/Therm This Winter
This post presents the development of the energy mix for the UK, and how the UK in less than a decade went from being a substantial energy exporter to a substantial net energy importer.
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Euan Mearns

Lies, Damned Lies and Government Oil Production Forecasts?
Back in 2005 the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) forecast 2.84 mbpd oil production in Norway during 2009. I pointed out their forecast was rather optimistic. 2.3 mbpd was what actually came to pass. The NPD were 23% too high.
The architecture of UK offshore oil production in relation to future production models
This post, written in November 2006 provided a forecast for UK oil production employing bottom up and top down methodology. My forecast for UK oil production in 2009 was 1.53 mbpd. 1.45 mbpd was what actually came to pass. I was 6% too high.
Flesh on the bones of Mexican oil production
With Cantarell in free fall, this post tried to take a more holistic view of Mexican oil production, pointing out that nitrogen once destined for Cantarell would now be diverted and injected into neighboring Ku-Maloob-Zaap complex.
Saudi production laid bare
This post was written to counter Stuart Staniford who claimed "Oil production peaked in Saudi Arabia in 2005. Recent sharp declines in production are involuntary and Saudi Arabia has switched from swing producer to supply constrained producer."
GHAWAR: an estimate of remaining oil reserves and production decline (Part 1 - background and methodology)
GHAWAR: an estimate of remaining oil reserves and production decline (Part 2 - results)
Ghawar reserves update and revisions (1)
Estimates of the remaining reserves and future production in Ghawar, the worlds largest oil field, based on data gleaned from the internet by a host of eager bloggers.
Crisis, what energy crisis?
An overview of the best posts from the 12 months preceding July 2007.
UK Energy Security
A look at possible impacts of UK oil and gas production decline together with a range of appropriate energy policy responses.
Saudi Arabia - production forecasts and reserves estimates
An oil production forecast for Saudi Arabia using both bottom up and top down (Hubbert linearisation) techniques. Peak was forecast to be 2011.
The European Gas Market
A comprehensive look at where Europe gets its natural gas from (34 charts and maps) including forecasts that incorporate peak Norwegian gas production and decline of the supergiant gas field at Groningen in Holland.
Daddy, will the lights be on at Christmas?
A follow up to the European Gas market incorporating a forecast for Norwegian gas production produced by Rune Likvern.
Why oil costs over $120 per barrel
An examination of some of the fundamental causes of the run in oil prices that took place in 2008.
Why oil costs over $130 per barrel: the decline of North Sea Oil
An overview of North Sea oil production decline and its role in the oil price run of 2008.
A State of Emergency
An examination of the plunge in UK oil and gas production and its impact on the UK economy ahead of the 2008 crash.
The Global Energy Crisis and its Role in the Pending Collapse of the Global Economy
The slides I presented at a talk to the Royal Society of Chemists in Aberdeen, November 2008.
The energy efficiency of energy procurement systems
An overview of the energy return on a number of energy procurement systems together with a look at contradictory policies being pursued by OECD governments.
The energy efficiency of cars
A simple look at the energy efficiency of various vehicle propulsion systems including all electric, internal combustion, fuel cells and bio fuel.
The financial return on energy invested
An experimental examination of links between energy production, consumption, prices and GDP.
The Chinese Coal Monster
An examination of the phenomenal growth in Chinese coal production and consumption. How long can this go on?
Read more posts by Euan Mearns
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David Murphy

EROI, Insidious Feedbacks, and the End of Economic Growth
In this post I attempt to answer the following question: Is a return to long term economic growth possible?
The True Value of Energy is the Net Energy
"The true value of energy to society is the net energy, which is that after the energy costs of getting and concentrating that energy are subtracted.? - H.T. Odum (1973)
Energy Transitions and the Next Paradigmatic Image of the World
The most important question is ?what is the next paradigmatic image of the world??
The Net Hubbert Curve, what does it mean?
Cutler Cleveland of Boston University has reported that the EROI of oil and gas extraction in the U.S. has decreased from 100:1 in the 1930?s to 30:1 in the 1970?s to roughly 11:1 as of 2000. What does this mean?
Further Evidence of the Influence of Energy on the US economy
Gail, Jeff Rubin, and now James Hamilton of the University of California ? San Diego have produced literature correlating either this financial collapse or recessions more generally with peak oil and oil prices. The take-away message of their work is that oil prices played a fundamental role in causing the current recession and many previous recessions.
The Energy Return on Investment Threshold Due to the asymptotic nature of the curve at high EROIs, extraction/conversion processes with EROIs below 8 result in vastly different flows of net energy than those with higher EROIs.
Read more posts by David Murphy
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Heading Out

Heading Out has written a long series of articles under the title of Tech Talks, running on Sundays. These recently deal with oil and gas resource availability in various parts of the world. Earlier, the articles dealt with techniques for extraction of oil and gas. After the Deepwater Horizon blow out, he wrote a series of articles dealing with the approaches to sealing the well.
Link to a listing of posts by Heading Out. (Real name, Dave Summers)
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Jérôme à Paris

Ukraine vs Russia: Tales of pipelines and dependence
I wrote the text below in late December 2005, i.e. just before the Russian-Ukrainian gas conflict, which had been simmering for a few weeks, blew open into the consciousness of the West.
New Iraqi oil law: some facts on PSAs
A post refuting some assertions about the new Iraqi oil law, which will allow foreign companies to invest in the oil sector via PSAs (production sharing agreements).
A review of the underlying fundamentals of nuclear energy
A review of the pros and cons of the nuclear industry.
How To Get A Pipeline Built
A primer on why and how pipelines get built - which essentially means how they get financed.
Countdown to $200 oil meets Anglo Disease
Oil has played a fascinating side role in my Anglo Disease series, allowing the debt bubble to go on for much longer than expected. But now, instead, it is accelerating the crash. Let me take you through the whole cycle.
Fierce pride - yes it works! (or, first ever bank-financed offshore wind farm inaugurated!)
A post about the windfarm which I helped finance two years ago which is now up and running.
Countdown to $200 oil: $140 oil and speculation
There are A LOT of good reasons why oil prices are going up. Let me show you just a few.
The cost of wind, the price of wind, the value of wind
In this post I try to clear some of the confusion that surrounds the economics of wind power, as this is an issue that is often used by the opponents of wind to dismiss it.
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Engineer-Poet

Sustainability, Energy Independence and Agricultural Policy.
If we are going to use biofuels, we need to re-think everything involved with them; the results may not look like anything we've ever seen.
One engineer's advice for energy policy.
An open letter to Obama on the path the country should take.
H2CAR: Another blind alley
We can make enough biofuel to replace oil, but at a price we cannot pay; this is NOT a solution.
The Cogeneration Stopgap
Generating electricity along with heat can stretch fuel supplies and bridge to the future.
Energetics of cultivation: draft animals vs. combustion engines and the Haber process
Tractors are more efficient than horses, and we don't have to breed or train them.
Analysis of the Hon. John Dingell's carbon-tax proposal
Talking back to a Washington insider who kept Detroit in the gas-guzzler business, who I voted against when my city became part of his district, yet who is making some sense.
EPA economy ratings vs. the GM Volt: A square peg in a round hole
Ruminations on why MPG loses its relevance in a world of watt-hours per mile.
Photovoltaics: From Waste to Energy-maker
How the dumps of phosphate mining can yield the material to power much of the world.
Weathering the storm: making it through a natural-gas crisis.
Lifestyle changes which may slash fuel demand by changing habits.
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Robert Rapier

We Won't Stop Global Warming
I lay out the case that there isn?t really much we will do to stop the accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere.
Does the Hubbert Linearization Ever Work?
Debunking the use of the Hubbert Linearization as a tool for the prediction of peak oil.
Peak Oil Interview: Misconceptions, Replacing Oil, and False Solutions
An interview I did at that 2010 Global Footprint Network conference that discusses peak oil.
What If Gas Cost $100 a Gallon?
A thought experiment to see what people might really do in cases of extreme gasoline constraints.
A Critical Examination of Matt Simmons? Claims on the Deepwater Spill
Debunking hyperbolic comments related to the deepwater spill.
The Switch to Winter Gasoline and a Primer on Gasoline Blends
Every year in late summer, you will start hearing references in the media about the conversion to winter gasoline. So what does this mean, and why does it make gasoline less expensive?
The Price of Energy
Just looking at the cost per BTU of many different energy sources. Sparking some interesting discussion.
The Case for Higher Gas Taxes (and Lower Income Taxes)
I make my case for why it would make sense to shift taxes from income to consumption of fossil fuels.
Ethanol Blend E85 Case Study: Iowa
Examines the question of why Iowa should use their own ethanol instead of exporting it.
The Next Five Years: Peak Lite and the Current Oil Picture
Seeking to explain why I think peak oil consequences would start to happen before peak oil.
Refining 201: The Assay Essay
Explaining what products are produced from crude oil, and how that relates to the assay of the crude.
Why Not Nuclear Power?
Exploring the case for expanded nuclear power.
The Future is Solar
Why I think solar power has to play a more important role in the future.
Cellulosic Ethanol vs. Biomass Gasification
Just explaining the difference in the two technologies that have seen the borderlines between them blurred.
German Military Study Warns of Potential Energy Crisis
A translation of major points from the Bundeswehr report.
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Luis de Sousa

World Oil Exports: A Comprehensive Projection
This article is a first simplistic (but comprehensive) assessment of World Oil Exports, here defined as the total amount of liquid hydrocarbons that are surpluses in producing countries.
World Oil Exports [00] Introduction
A 2008 update on the original 2006 assessment.
World Oil Exports [01] Angola
The next post in the series focussing specifically on Angola's oil reserves.
World Oil Exports [02] Libya
Same as above except Libya this time.
A New Energy Policy for Europe
Wednesday the European Commission released a series of Communications proposing a new revolutionary Energy Policy attempting to address EU?s energy challenges for the XXI century. This is a set of first comments to such proposals.
Dialoguing with Dr. Peter Jackson of CERA: Is the Future of Oil Resources Secure?
Some reflections follow regarding Dr. Jackson?s arguments and understanding of the Hubbert?s Peak.
From sweet on the table to fuel in the tank: the millenary history of Sugar Cane
A dive into the fascinating history of a plant that shaped the World.
Marchetti's Curves
This is a brief account of the Energy Substitution Model developed by Cesare Marchetti in the 1970s at IIASA.
A few more thoughts on Saudi and HL
There has been some discussion about how to apply the Hubbert Linearization (HL) to Saudi historical production in recent weeks at TOD. Trying not to fall into redundancy, let me have some loose thoughts on these models.
Olduvai revisited 2008
This work tries to assess how the decline of Conventional Fossil Fuels may unfold and how can Mankind avoid the Road that may take us back to the Olduvai Gorge.
IEA WEO 2008 - Fossil Fuel Ultimates and CO2 Emissions Scenarios
An assessment of the WEO climate change statistics, co-authored with Euan Mearns.
Energy Policy: SER-2
This log entry is the first of a series that will try to build a critical but constructive review of this crucial element of future Energy Policy in Europe.
SER-2 [02] Memo on the Security and Solidarity Action Plan
In the second installment of this series analysing the Second Strategic Energy Review (SER-2) by the European Commission, the focus is on to the Memo entitled ?EU Energy Security and Solidarity Action Plan?.
SER-2 [03] Communication of the Security and Solidarity Action Plan
This post tries to highlight important aspects that aren't referenced in the Memo and presents the implementation steps proposed by the Commission to put the Plan into practice.
Planning for Europe's Energy Future: My Submission to the Commission's 2010 Consultation on Energy
This document is a response to the Energy Consultation launched by the European Commission in the first half of 2010. This consultation is part of a process that shall take the Commission to a new Energy Policy Programme a few years from now.
Interview with Jean Laherrère
Some comments on the general Fossil Fuels depletion picture and our future beyond them.
Read more posts by Luis de Sousa
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Stuart Staniford

4%, 11%, Who the Hell Cares? A very early piece pointing out that the post-peak decline rate is really the critical variable in assessing the seriousness of peak oil - much more important than the date or height of peak, or the degree of warning of peak. This piece still seems pretty good to me.
Hubbert Theory says Peak is Slow Squeeze. The first piece I wrote looking at the evidence that the post peak decline rate will probably be slow, rather than rapid.
The Auto Efficiency Wedge A piece looking at the fact that at slow decline rates, it's reasonably forseeable that peak oil can be handled by ongoing efficiency improvements (not painlessly, but without complete disaster)
Depletion Levels in Ghawar A major forensic analysis of the state of oil depletion in the Ghawar field of Saudi Arabia, suggesting that Saudi official oil reserve figures are over-optimistic.
US Peak Oil Adaptation: Prognosis in a Credit Crunch Rather prescient piece from 2007 discussing the possibility that the credit crunch could collapse oil prices and slow adaptation to peak oil. This turned out to be pretty much what happened.
Fermenting the Food Supply An argument against continued growth in biofuel consumption as an alternative to oil, on the grounds that the implications for food prices are likely to be very problematic.
The Fallacy of Reversibility This piece argued that there is no evidence for the idea that peak oil will lead to a revival of local non-industrial agriculture. The reverse seems more likely - that industrial agriculture is being and will be strengthened by high oil prices.
Powering Civilization to 2050 The first of three posts laying out a scenario for how we could get to a fairly close to carbon neutral civilization by 2050, without major collapse or disaster (if I was in charge in of the world). This post looked at energy, and argued that extrapolating the learning curve of solar power, it was possible to see energy becoming cheap again by 2050, based primarily on solar.
Four Billion Cars in 2050? Second of the "2050" series: Guesstimates on how many cars there might be by 2050, and how they might be powered.
Food to 2050 The third in the "2050" series: Whether there are likely to be limitations on feeding the world's population to 2050 in a cautiously optimistic scenario.
Read more posts by Stuart Staniford
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Jeff Vail

Theory of Geopolitical Disruptions to Oil Supply
Discusses several non-geological feedback loops that may have a dramatic impact on the course of resource depletion.
Mexico, A Nation-State Dissolves
Addresses the geopolitical instability in Mexico as a potential bellwether for the Nation-State structure generally, and its potential impact on oil production and exports.
The Problem of Growth
How the fundamental structure of our civilization demands perpetual growth and is therefore inherently unsustainable, as well as potential structural solutions.
Oil Demand Destruction and Brittle Systems
Argues that demand destruction tends to make remaining demand less elastic, and therefore makes systems more brittle and vulnerable to future supply shocks.
Predator-Prey Dynamics in Oil Prices
Argues that oil demand, supply, and prices can be modeled similar to predator-prey systems in nature.
A series of posts on the potential for suburbia post-peak.
A Resilient Suburbia? 1: Sunk Cost & Credit Markets
A Resilient Suburbia? 2: Cost of Commuting
A Resilient Suburbia? 3: Weighing the Potential for Self-Sufficiency
A Resilient Suburbia 4: Accounting for the Value of Decentralization
The Renewables Gap
Discussion of the challenges of a societal transition to renewable sources of energy, and especially the "gap" between the beginning of massive investment and the beginning of significant levels of renewable energy generation.
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Chris Vernon

Will Wartime Mobilisation Address Peak Oil?
A look at Lester Brown's call for wartime mobilisation.
Nuclear Britain
Reviews the history and future of civilian nuclear power in Britain.
Climate Change ? an alternative approach
Rather than attempting to reduce emissions be reducing demand, can the same be achieved by limiting fossil fuel production?
Jonathon Porritt: Peak Oil and Climate Change
Prominent environmentalist brings together these two issues.
Goodbye Helium, Goodbye Brainscans
Non-Renewable resource scarcity, the case of Helium.
Read more posts by Chris Vernon
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Some Notable Guest Posts

Cutler Cleveland - Energy Transitions Past and Future
Herman Daly: Towards a Steady State Economy
Herman Daly on the Credit Crisis, Financial Assets, and Real Wealth
Jay Hanson: America 2.0
Walter Youngquist: Unique Times -- and the Future
Christopher Smith: Aviation and Oil Depletion
Nick Rouse: Will Nuclear Fusion Fill the Gap Left by Peak Oil?
Dave Pollard: It's Our Turn to Eat: How Politics Works and Why Activism is So Important
Lester R. Brown: The Oil Intensity of Food
Alan Drake: Multiple Birds ? One Silver BB: A synergistic set of solutions to multiple issues focused on Electrified Railroads
Debbie Cook: How Will Local Governments Respond to Large Increases in Energy Bills?
Aaron Newton: The Four Day Work Week: Sixteen Reasons Why This Might Be an Idea Whose Time Has Come
Glenn Morton: Holding Daniel Yergin and CERA Accountable
Michael Vickerman: A federal energy policy: can it happen here?
Brad Lancaster - Eight Principles of Successful Rainwater Harvesting
Dave Rutledge: The Coal Question and Climate Change
Jeffrey J. Brown: The ELP Plan: Economize; Localize & Produce
Jean Laherrère: Arctic Oil and Gas Ultimates
Jean Laherrère: Hydrates updated
Jean Laherrère: Forecasts on Saudi Arabia liquids production
Jean Laherrère: Update on US GOM from MMS, EIA and Scout Data
Sterling Smith: Energy Vision 2050
Douglas B. Reynolds: Peak oil and the Fall of the Soviet Union: Lessons on the 20th Anniversary of the Collapse
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This list isn't exhaustive nor final but what the authors sent in (and we are still missing a few authors).

Once, men abused slaves. Now we abuse fossil fuels

Intriguing similarities between slavery and our current dependence on fossil-fuel-powered machines struck me: both perform roughly the same functions in society (doing the hard and dirty work that no one wants to do), both were considered for a long time to be acceptable by the majority and both came to be increasingly challenged as the harm they caused became more visible.

The history of slavery and its abolition shows how blurred the frontier between what is considered good and evil can be, and how quickly it can shift. We have a mental image of slave-owners as cruel, sadistic, inhuman brutes, and forget too easily the ordinariness of slave ownership throughout the world. To many, slavery seemed normal and indispensable. In the US, George Washington and Thomas Jefferson owned slaves. Lifestyles and healthy incomes were predicated upon it, just as we today depend on oil. Similarly, many slave-owners lived with the impression that they were decent people.

Oil Rises From Near Six-Week Low Before Jobs Report; Brent Premium Widens

Oil headed for a weekly decline before a report that may show U.S. employers hired fewer workers last month than in December. Brent crude?s premium to the New York price is set for the largest weekly gain in a month.

Futures traded near a six-week low after dropping a fifth day yesterday, the longest losing streak since August. The U.S. added 140,000 jobs in January after gaining 200,000 in December, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists before a Labor Department report today. London-traded Brent?s premium to West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. benchmark, widened 30 percent this week to the most since Nov. 12.

U.S. gasoline heads for "epic summer"-Citi's Kleinman

(Reuters) - Refinery outages in the U.S. and Europe and lower U.S. crude prices will support U.S. gasoline refining margins and enable traders to profit from rising U.S. gasoline futures, said Seth Kleinman, global head of energy strategy at Citi.

"U.S. gasoline looks fantastic - it is heading for an epic summer," said Kleinman, speaking at the ETF Securities Investment Conference in London on Thursday. "Structurally it will be very supportive for the entire oil market."

Bets on Raw Materials Rising Most Since ?06 as Factories Grow: Commodities

Investments in commodities are expanding at the quickest pace in six years on signs of rising economic growth, even as JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. warn that some prices have rallied too fast.

The number of futures contracts on 24 commodities from oil to copper rose 9.3 percent last month, the most since January 2006, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Speculators are the most bullish since November, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Gold and silver had the best start to a year since 1983, orange juice posted its biggest rally in more than three decades, the LMEX gauge of six industrial metals rose the most since 2006, and cattle futures advanced to a record.

North Sea Oil Exports to Asia at 8-Year High: Energy Markets

(Bloomberg) -- More North Sea oil is being shipped to Asia than at any time in the past eight years as prices fall to their cheapest levels in 15 months compared with Middle East alternatives.

Deja vu as Russia gas cuts hit eight more EU countries

BRUSSELS - Eight EU countries have joined Italy in noting a sharp drop in Russian gas supplies, in events recalling the massive 2009 crunch.

Gazprom deliveries to Austria and Slovakia reportedly fell by 30 percent on Thursday (2 February). Shipments to Poland fell 7 percent and Czech distributor RWE Transgaz said deliveries are "several" percent lower than normal.

EU says gas supplies are down despite Gazprom claim

(BRUSSELS) - The EU executive said Friday that gas deliveries have fallen in eight countries, despite Russian insistence that volumes had increased amid a sudden drop in temperatures.

As temperatures plunged to fresh lows in a week-long cold snap that has claimed more than 220 lives, the European Commission said Austria, Bulgaria, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Romania and Slovakia had each registered drops in gas supplies.

Ukraine blames Russia for gas shortages in Europe as severe cold spell grips region

KIEV, Ukraine ? Ukraine?s government is blaming Russia for natural gas shortages in some European countries as a severe cold spell grips the region.

Fuel and Energy Minister Yuri Boiko said Friday that Russia was shipping some 15 percent less gas than usual because of increased domestic consumption due to the cold weather.

Risks to UK gas security abound - Ofgem chief

LONDON (Reuters) - A lack of sufficient gas storage, heavy dependence on Qatari liquefied natural gas (LNG) and an unknown American capacity to export gas to Europe are all risks to Britain's gas supply security, the UK's energy regulator chief said this week.

"Fundamentally we are very concerned about security of (energy) supply," said Ofgem Chief Executive Alistair Buchanan at a gas seminar on Thursday evening.

Lukoil reserves 17.3 bln barrels of oil equivalent

MOSCOW (Reuters) - LUKOIL, Russia's second-biggest oil producer, said on Friday that proven hydrocarbon reserves as of Dec. 31 were 17.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent, including 13.4 billion barrels of oil and 23.2 trillion cubic feet of gas.

The company also said it replenished oil already produced by more than 100 percent in 2011, with 619 million barrels of oil equivalent added thanks to exploration and a further 197 million barrels of oil equivalent gained by a "reinterpretation of previous assessments."

Huhne Resigns as U.K. Energy Secretary After Being Charged

Chris Huhne resigned as U.K. energy secretary after becoming the first serving Cabinet minister to be charged with a serious criminal offense in modern times.

Prosecutors have ?sufficient evidence to bring criminal charges? against Huhne and his ex-wife, Vicky Pryce, of perverting the course of justice, the director of public prosecutions, Keir Starmer, said in a televised statement in London today. The charges were laid after Pryce accused Huhne of lying about a speeding ticket nine years ago.

Employment minister Davey named Energy Secretary

(Reuters) - Employment minister Ed Davey was appointed Friday as Energy and Climate Change Secretary to replace Chris Huhne who has resigned following news he is to be charged over allegations he tried to cover up a speeding offence.

Oil Royalty Raise on U.S. Lands ?Not Imminent,? Agency Says

A proposal to increase royalty rates for energy production on federal lands isn?t imminent and won?t be included with President Barack Obama?s 2013 budget proposal this month, an administration official said.

Environmental groups including the Wilderness Society said the administration should consider raising the payments to as much as 20 percent. The federal government collects 12.5 percent of the value of oil produced on federal land and 18.75 percent offshore.

Norway?s Oil Bonds Chase Record Spending Amid Offshore Boom

(Bloomberg) -- Norway?s corporate bond issuance is growing at the fastest pace in at least six years as Europe?s biggest oil exporter prepares for record spending on its offshore industry.

Spain's Repsol begins Cuba offshore drilling-sources

HAVANA (Reuters) - Spanish oil company Repsol YPF has begun drilling the first well in Cuba's long-awaited exploration of offshore oilfields that the communist country says hold both billions of barrels of oil and the key to greater prosperity, industry sources told Reuters on Thursday.

The massive Scarabeo 9 drilling rig, which arrived in Cuban waters two weeks ago, began drilling into the sea floor about 30 miles northwest of Havana on Tuesday night, the sources said.

Uganda and Tullow sign deal to start oil production

Uganda's government has signed production agreements with the London-based company Tullow oil.

The deals pave the way for a $10bn (£6bn) investment in a refinery and crude oil export pipeline.

PetroChina, Shell Deepen Ties for ?Powerful? Shale Potential

PetroChina Co. (857) and Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSA) deepened their collaboration in exploring unconventional gas resources with the Chinese company investing in a Canadian project and the European oil producer pledging to help it step up drilling to tap shale reserves in the second-largest economy.

Wyoming adopts new gas flaring rules

CHEYENNE -- Top state officials and education advocates say a new natural-gas flaring policy is a ?step forward? to securing more royalties for minerals on state school trust lands.

The Wyoming Board of Land Commissioners voted Thursday to accept new standards and procedures to determine when companies can flare gas without paying state royalties.

'Bayou Billionaires' Brings Gas Boom To Reality TV

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The fracking-led oil and natural gas boom that's received widespread attention in the mainstream press has moved to a new medium: reality TV.

Japan protests to China over undersea gas drilling

TOKYO (AP) ? Japan has accused China of unilaterally exploring gas deposits in the East China Sea, in violation of an agreement to jointly develop disputed areas.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Osamu Fujimura told reporters Wednesday that Japan protested to China after a flare was seen Tuesday at a Chinese structure at an undersea gas deposit. Japan has made similar complaints several times in the past.

"We have detected a flare, a sign that it is highly likely that there is a gas development going on," Fujimura said. "Any unilateral exploration is unacceptable."

China rejects Japan protest over gas exploration

(AP) BEIJING ? China has rejected Japanese protests over alleged improper exploration of gas deposits in the East China Sea.

The Foreign Ministry said Friday the recent activity had taken place within Chinese-controlled waters and was completely normal. A ministry statement said China was strongly dissatisfied with recent comments from Japanese officials.

Egyptian Police Fire Teargas at Cairo Protests After Deadly Soccer Clash

Egyptian police used tear gas to disperse protesters in Cairo and two people were reported killed in Suez as unrest persisted following violence at a soccer match this week that left more than 70 dead.

Crowds tried to storm police headquarters in both cities, the state-run Middle East News Agency reported. Demonstrators blame police for failing to prevent the violence that followed a soccer match on Feb. 1 in the coastal city of Port Said.

Gunmen kidnap 2 Americans and an Egyptian in Sinai

Egypt has faced deteriorating security and a surge in crime since the popular uprising that ousted Hosni Mubarak nearly a year ago. Protesters accuse the military council that has assumed power and the police force of negligence.

The unrest led to a sharp drop in the country's vital tourism sector, with revenues plunging almost 30 percent last year.

Sacrifices in vain on the Afghanistan war path

A NATO report made public yesterday suggests that the Taliban, backed by Pakistan, is set to retake control of Afghanistan after NATO-led forces withdraw.

Although not a strategic study the report begs the question, has the sacrifice of our Australian diggers been in vain? Has our contribution to the war on terrorism as Australian taxpayers been money well spent?

Rights group: Syrian security forces have tortured children

(CNN) -- Syrian army and security officers have detained and tortured children with impunity during the past year, a rights group claimed in a report Friday, as it urged the U.N. Security Council to act on Syria.

The Human Rights Watch report comes as the U.N Security Council considers a draft resolution intended to pressure Syria to end its months-long crackdown on anti-government demonstrators -- and as violence continues unabated in Syria.

Iran's Khamenei warns over military strike, oil embargo threat

TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Friday the Islamic Republic would not yield to international pressure to abandon its nuclear course, threatening retaliation for sanctions aimed at Iran's oil exports.

"Threatening Iran and attacking Iran will harm America ... Sanctions will not have any impact on our determination to continue our nuclear course ... In response to threats of oil embargo and war, we have our own threats to impose at the right time," Khamenei told worshippers in a speech broadcast live on state television.

Panetta says Israel could strike Iran in spring: report

US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta believes there is a "strong possibility" that Israel will strike Iran's nuclear installations this spring, the Washington Post said Thursday in an editorial.

When asked about the opinion piece by reporters travelling with him to a NATO meeting in Brussels, Panetta brushed it aside.

New fears over Iran's missile capability

IRAN is developing a missile capable of hitting the east coast of the US, according to an Israeli government minister, intensifying western anxiety over the regime's nuclear ambitions.

The fresh alert was further heightened by reports that the US Defence Secretary, Leon Panetta, believes a pre-emptive strike on Iran's nuclear facilities by Israel looms likely and could come as soon as April.

The World According To Noam Chomsky

With the instability in Iran and scoping the long-term horizon, do you see the potential for World War III, given the natural resources crunch ahead for humanity ? with shortages of food, water and oil all looking likely?

"I don't think we are approaching an international resource war, but the problem of natural resources is serious. In terms of fossil fuels, it is not that we are running out ? they are actually too easily available. The use of fossil fuels is having a very real impact on the chances of survival. The recent emissions reports from the International Energy Agency and the US Department of Energy indicate that the worst-case scenarios of the International Panel on Climate Change were too conservative. There may be only a few years until we reach the point where the window closes and you can't really do anymore. Now, that is serious. The new techniques on extending the use of fossil fuels, fracking and so on with shale gas and the tar sands in Canada, are extremely dangerous. Not only because they are extending the use of fossil fuels, but also because they have damaging local effects on the environment. They take a massive use of water, which is an increasingly scarce resource itself. They are not only using water, but poisoning local water through use of chemicals. These tendencies are quite ominous, I think.

All this carbon-cutting is a waste of energy

Neither Boris Johnson nor Ken Livingstone is willing to deliver the uninterrupted, cheap energy London needs.

The Peak Oil Crisis: Election 2012

If current trends continue, gasoline prices and U.S. energy policy seem destined to play a larger role in the political debate prior to the November elections than ever before. Gasoline on the East Coast is already within striking distance of all-time highs and most prognosticators are talking about the likelihood of $4+ gasoline before summer. Although the U.S. consumer is more inured to $4 gasoline than four years ago, the crossing of the $4 barrier is bound to set off another round of recriminations and finger pointing as to just who or what is causing this phenomenon. If what happened in 2008 is any indication we are in for another round of bizarre proposals from our politicians - remember the "sue OPEC" legislation.

Economic growth and the future...

Hydralic fracking, digging up the tar sands of Canada and the desparate deep sea oil exploration are some of the signs that peak oil and energy descent is upon us.

The low hanging fruit are all but gone.

The Secret Behind Report 117

What started as a typical call with a friend turned into an hour-long conversation about Peak Oil. Both of us had just gotten word of Australia's Report 117 and the fact that the Australian government was keeping a tight lid on its contents.

?So you're saying it was okay for them to bury it like that?? I asked.

?Nowadays, I don't put anything past them... Besides, it's not like we didn't see it coming.?

Peak oil really could destroy the economy ? just not in the way greens think

It is one of the key tenets of the global green religion: ?scarce resources? are running out; they must be preserved for ?future generations?; ergo, we must reduce our consumption of them either through self-abnegation or through state intervention ranging from market manipulation (e.g. taxes and subsidies to drive us all from fossil fuels) to full-on rationing. If you refer back to the previous paragraph, you may detect a certain irony here.

Yes, in the name of averting global economic disaster, concerned greens have been pushing the very policies most likely to cause it. Driving up energy prices, discouraging consumption, increasing regulation, rationing resources: these are not, I think we can all agree, methods traditionally associated with getting an economy out of a depression.

The solution to peak oil

Peak oil is not a theory, it is a fact. Although we cannot be sure of exactly when demand will outstrip supply, the fact that oil is a finite resource means that it will happen. Sooner rather than later. If humanity is going to survive with any dignity we will need to transition back to a system that is based on the ultimate source of all our energy, the Sun.

What a resource-constrained economy means for cleantech

Let me start by asking, ?What resources constrain the economy?? In the 20th century the McKinsey Global Institute Commodity Price Index fell by half. This is despite population going up fourfold, and the global economy growing by 20 times (For this and other McKinsey references below see their excellent report on Resource Revolution). Malthus was proved wrong; we didn?t live in a resource-constrained world.

But that?s no longer true. In the last 10 years that commodity index has gone all the way back up. Why? There are more people, and more of those people are prosperous than ever before ? ?3 billion will be added to the global middle class in the next 20 years. Expanding existing sources is more expensive and more difficult. The world is more interlinked; a small crisis in one commodity can quickly affect many more, creating a bigger shock. And, crucially, we?ve degraded the natural world so much that it cannot withstand shocks like it used to, making us all much more vulnerable.

Bill Rees' Last Lecture

Though tinged with hope, his message rides on tremendous consequences from inaction. Rees quoted from the 2007 Swedish Tällberg Forum which stated, "Do we know what we need to do? Probably yes. Will we do it? Probably not."

Rees laid out it down. "Failure to assert collective reason over instinct will lead to civil strife, resource wars and ecological destruction. That's the summary of the entire course."

Nuclear Reactor Incidents Are Reminders of Need for Preparedness

A reactor at a Southern California nuclear power plant was shut down after a leak in a steam generator tube on Tuesday, Reuters reported. This incident came a day after WIFR reported a nuclear plant lost power and shut down in Byron, Ill., on Monday. While both incidents were determined to not be high emergency levels, they are reminders of the importance to include nuclear disaster planning in individual and family emergency plans.

Wishing Upon an Atom in a Tiny French Village

Even in the wake of the meltdown in Japan, as France?s European neighbors have begun to close nuclear plants, this village quite likes its power station. Just a mile or so from the border with Germany ? which closed its eight oldest reactors within days of the Fukushima disaster ? Fessenheim seems a fitting symbol of France?s attachment to the atom.

58% vs. 27% - Sharp Divide Between Republicans and Democrats on Energy and the Environment

No issue divides more along partisan lines than the importance of environmental protection - 58% of Democrats say it is a top priority, compared with just 27% of Republicans.

Civic hybrid owner wins in court over too-low mpg

Southern California Honda Civic hybrid owner Heather Peters won $9,867 in a court fight with Honda over what she said was her car's too-low mileage.

Clouds gather over Spain's renewables sector as aid cut

Spain's push to become a world leader in renewable energy risks collapsing after the government slammed the brakes on generous subsidies as part of an austerity drive.

Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's government passed a decree on Friday to "temporarily suspend" subsidies for all new wind, solar, co-generation or waste incineration plants as it seeks to curb the public deficit.

Federal Government Opens More Ocean to Wind Projects

Enthusiasm for offshore wind projects may have cooled among developers in the United States these days, but the Obama administration is still trying to make a ribbon of wind farms off the Atlantic Coast a reality.

Towards a More Energy Efficient Food System

So how much energy is required to grow food? According to Webber, about 10 percent of the U.S. energy budget is associated with "producing, distributing, processing, preparing and preserving the plant and animal matter we consume." And what's the rate of return on that investment of energy? Unfortunately, it's not very good. "The energy used to make food is vastly greater than the amount of energy we get out of it," writes Webber. In the United States, it takes about 10 units of fossil energy to produce one unit of food energy.

Too much, too fast, too soon? The future of the Arctic in the times of ?cold rush?

BRUSSELS ? Environmentalists, oil and gas industry representatives, the European Commission and certifiers of oil and gas installations were in agreement that the risks of oil and gas operations in the Artic are far greater than in most other places in the world during a European Parliament conference on Wednesday.

EU Climate Chief Seeks Doubling of Global Clean Energy at Rio

European Union Climate Commissioner Connie Hedegaard said countries meeting at a conference in June should pledge to double the share of renewable energy they use by 2030 and give all citizens access to sustainable power.

The nations also need to double the world?s energy efficiency, Hedegaard told reporters today in New Delhi.

Euro Parliament backs low-carbon road map

BRUSSELS (UPI) -- A European Parliament committee this week approved an EU "road map" to a low-carbon economy that seeks to go beyond current greenhouse gas reduction targets.

The European Parliament's Committee on the Environment Tuesday passed a report written by British MEP Chris Davies that backs the European Commission's "Road map for Moving to a Competitive Low Carbon Economy in 2050," giving it a key legislative victory.

Who hasn’t enjoyed heat from the sun? Doing so represents a direct energetic transfer?via radiation?from the sun’s hot surface to your skin. One square meter can catch about 1000 W, which is comparable to the output of a portable space heater. A dark surface can capture the energy at nearly 100% efficiency, beating (heating?) the pants off of solar photovoltaic (PV) capture efficiency, for instance. We have already seen that solar PV qualifies as a super-abundant resource, requiring panels covering only about 0.5% of land to meet our entire energy demand (still huge, granted). So direct thermal energy from the sun, gathered more efficiently than what PV can do, is automatically in the abundant club. Let’s evaluate some of the practical issues surrounding solar thermal: either for home heating or for the production of electricity.

Heat as Something Useful

In physics classes, I often catch myself repeating the mantra that heat is a disordered, useless state of energy that is generically the endpoint of an energy flow process. For example, the energy allocated to the fast-spinning wheel of an upside-down bicycle will slowly drain away as the wheel stirs the air, makes sound, and suffers friction at the bearing. Every one of these energy paths results in heat, until 100% of the invested energy is dissipated and the room is a tad warmer as a result. We will never reassemble the lost energy into useful form, once entropy has claimed it. All of this is true enough, but I feel very awkward uttering the words that heat is the graveyard of energy flow, and must place an asterisk on the statement.

The asterisk is that the overwhelming majority of our societal energy consumption makes use of heat?over 90% in the U.S.! So heat does not deserve the bad rap as a worthless waste product. Rather, heat runs our world! Sometimes we just want the heat directly, via: natural gas for furnaces, hot water, and cooking; heating oil for the home; and gas and coal for industrial process heat. This accounts for 20% of our total energy demand, leaving about two-thirds of our total energy consumption in the form of heat that powers heat engines for electricity production, transportation, and machinery. In short, all the energy we get from fossil fuels, nuclear, and biomass derives from heat. That’s hardly useless!

Radiant Heat

The Sun transmits its energy to Earth across the emptiness of space via radiation. Each square meter of surface at a temperature, T, emits radiation at a rate of ?T⁴, where T is expressed in Kelvin (important!) and ? = 5.67×10^?8 W/m²/K⁴. This constant is easy to remember via the sequence 5-6-7-8. Ignoring for now the subtleties of greenhouse gases, the surface of Earth?typically at 288 K?emits 390 W/m². The Sun, on the other hand, at 5800 K, emits 64 MW per square meter!

Summing over the area of the spherical Sun, at 109 times the radius of Earth, we find the total radiant power of the Sun to be a whopping 3.9×10²⁶ W. Now that’s a light bulb! The Sun’s radiant energy spreads into all directions, creating a sphere of light. At the distance of the Earth, that sphere has an area of 4?r² ? 2.8×10²³ m², where r is the mean Earth-Sun distance. Dividing these huge figures, we find that the radiant intensity at Earth is 1370 W/m²?which I hope will be a familiar number by now for Do the Math readers.

We can also turn the ?T⁴ relation on its head and say that a patch of full sun (at the ground) receiving 1000 W/m² corresponds to a radiant temperature of 364 K, or a blistering 91°C. This means that a black panel in full sun could get this hot if no paths other than radiation were available for cooling the panel. We would then say that the panel is in radiative equilibrium with the Sun. But air can carry away heat by convection. The self-convection of a hot, flat plate will be about 10 W/m² per degree of difference between the panel and the surrounding air. Requiring the sum of radiative and convective losses to add up to the input power of 1000 W/m² yields a solution of about 55°C (328 K; 131°F) if the surrounding air is at 20°C. This assumes that the plate has no heat paths available through the (insulated) back side. If, on the other hand, it is a thin panel allowing convection on both sides, it will be cooler?although the “heat rises” phenomenon will suppress heat flow on the back side relative to the front, if the plate is indeed level. Just for fun, if we get an additional 5 W/m²/K of convective loss off the back, the equilibrium temperature drops to 47°C (117°F). It all seems reasonable.

Passive Solar: Putting Heat to Use

The simplest way to replace fossil fuel energy with solar energy is called a window. A single uncoated piece of glass will transmit 92% of visible light (the rest reflected) when light comes straight in (down to 75% at a 20° grazing incidence, 60% at 10° grazing). The glass is opaque to ultraviolet light and mid- to far-infrared (IR) light, but lets over 95% of the unreflected incident solar spectrum pass.

Considering that windows in houses/buildings tend to be vertical, we can evaluate the energy input through windows, taking transmission loss, reflection loss, and angular foreshortening into effect. Because the Sun is higher in the sky in the summer, the window appears foreshortened to the direct sunlight, and also reflects more. So a south-facing window automatically admits more heat in the winter than in the summer, with no adjustment. Putting an overhang over the window?ideally with some vertical space between the window and overhang?can eliminate the summer noon-time contribution entirely. The figure below illustrates the fraction of incident direct-sun energy (think 1000 W/m²) admitted by the window. Vertical reference lines indicate the noon-time elevation of the sun at a latitude of 40° for the winter and summer solstices. The noon-day sun will be somewhere between these values all year. Adjustment to other latitudes involves a simple shift of the dashed lines by the latitude difference.

So it is not a stretch to admit energy in excess of 500 W/m² into your home in winter sun. You can stack up the equivalent of a dozen or so space heaters pretty quickly.

Drab Winter?

Sounds great, but winters are not always the sunniest of times. However, it’s not as bad as you might fear. Every photon of visible light that makes it through your window?even if coming from a drab gray cloud?deposits the same amount of heat no mater how convoluted its path from the Sun. Indeed, a measurement campaign in my home has revealed that the attic gets surprisingly warmer (10°C, or 18°F) than the ambient air even on a day of heavy clouds when my solar PV system only caught one-quarter of the usual amount of light. So we can use the NREL database for a flat plate collector (in this case, a window) oriented south at a 90° tilt to represent the amount of energy a window would grab. The following table indicates the equivalent number of full-sun hours per day during the heating months for Seattle, WA (on the poor end), St. Louis MO (a representative U.S. average solar city), and San Diego (my home).

The table also includes the number of equivalent full-sun hours per day a 2-axis concentrating system would recover, which is a good proxy for the average daily number of hours of direct sun. The window can often get more energy than is present in full sun due to the diffuse gain, which is the case for six out of the seven months for Seattle in the table above.

If a house had four large windows facing south, each 2 m wide and 3 m tall, a typical Seattle day in December would deposit 900 W/m² (from earlier graph, low elevation sun) times 24 m², or about 22 kW of power for about 1.3 hours. This amounts to 28 kWh of energy (corresponding to about 1 Therm of natural gas energy).

To make this amount of heat work, the house must be extraordinarily well insulated, use fancy windows, and be draft-free?using a heat recovery ventilator. But such feats can be accomplished in passive home design, even in climates that would appear to be completely hostile to the notion of passive solar heating.

It is also often advantageous to have several days’ worth of thermal storage in the home to average out the sunny and cloudy days. A dark, massive rock or brick wall can do the job?preferentially opposite the huge south-facing windows to directly soak up the solar input. At a specific heat capacity of 1000 J/kg/K and a density of 3000 kg/m³, a rock wall 0.5 m thick and matching our 24 m² window footprint will see a temperature rise of about 2°C for every hour of sunlight poring onto it. A good sunny day pumping five hours of solar energy into the mass would raise its temperature 10°C, so that lazy air pulling off heat at 2 W/m²/K would initially pump out 2400 W of power after the sun is down (assuming the back of the wall is insulated), and provide about 2 days of heat with no additional input.

Of course a number of engineering challenges surround clever passive solar thermal design, and I should pull away before the post gets bogged down (too late, you say?). Perhaps I will return to the topic later. For now, it is worth understanding that the amount of solar radiation incident on a house can be sufficient to provide heating even in unfavorable climates. I should add one caveat: that passive heating may be sufficient 90% of the time, requiring either backup heat or?preferably?flexibility in dealing with a colder house the other 10% of the time.

Hot Water

Using the sun to heat water is a very similar concept. We saw that a flat black plate in the sun can get pretty toasty. In practice, flat panel collectors can hang onto about 60% of the incident solar energy, transferring this to the water. Heat paths via radiation through the glass on the front, convection of air within the panel, and conduction through the back and mounting frame all contribute to loss. For radiative loss, radiation from the black panel is intercepted by the glass (thermal IR is not transmitted by glass), warming it up. This can then radiate both skyward and back to the absorber. A second piece of glass (double-pane) can cut down radiation losses, by returning approximately half of what would otherwise have been lost off the front panel. Some fancy units evacuate air to minimize convective loss, and the backs can be insulated to reduce loss. Given all these thermal leaks, holding on to 60% of the incident energy is pretty impressive.

Let’s assume your household requires 300 liters of hot water each day?the equivalent of four “long” 10 minute showers at a healthy flow of 8 liters per minute. This, by the way, is far more than I believe is really necessary for a household?even if it is typical. If the water comes in at 10°C, and is heated to 60°C, then we need to supply 15,000 kcal of energy?following the definition of the kilocalorie. Considering 60% efficiency and allowing for some daily loss in storage, we need to provide 30,000 kcal of solar input each day, amounting to 35 kWh of energy. As it turns out, tilting a panel to 54° in St. Louis gives at least 3.5 hours of full-sun-equivalent (1000 W/m²) even in December, so that we need 10 m² of panels (a bedroom’s size).

Solar Thermal Electricity

The relatively low temperatures achieved by flat panels in the sun do not encourage exploitation in the form of heat engines for making electricity. But we can fix this through the simple act of concentration. No?not simply thinking really hard about it. Much like a magnifying glass can be used to burn paper, any piling-up of solar flux can elevate the temperature. I have personally melted pennies, boiled water, and turned sand into glass with a large hand-held Fresnel lens. Even a bunch of flat mirrors directing sunlight onto a common spot can create formidably high temperatures.

Concentration is expressed as a ratio, so if I take a circular magnifying glass 100 mm in diameter that makes an image of the sun 1 mm across, the concentration factor is 10,000 (the ratio of areas). Using our radiative relation, the resulting 10 MW/m² corresponds to a temperature of 3600 K! That kind of temperature will melt any metal, if you put the concentrated light onto a fleck of metal smaller than the bright spot. Typical boilers in power plants produce a hot temperature of about 1000 K. Achieving a comparable temperature via solar input requires a concentration in excess of 60.

One downside is that concentration implies tracking, which adds to complexity. Two-dimensional concentration?like a magnifying glass?requires two-axis control to keep the hotspot on the small target. One-dimensional concentration?such as a parabolic trough?only requires tracking along one axis. The concentration ratio of a 1-D concentrator is roughly the square-root of the 2-D variety, but that’s okay if we only need concentration ratios around 100 or so. One-dimensional concentration is also far more forgiving of imperfections in the reflector shape (can be made more cheaply).

Another downside of concentration is that it requires real direct sunlight to work. Can you see a sharp shadow on the ground? If not, concentration is effectively dead. In essence, the concentrator is forming an image of the sun?sometimes a stretched-out linear image in the case of trough collectors. Forming images of clouds onto the collector will not get it very excited. It needs the real thing. Comparing the effective yield for tracking configurations at different sites gives some sense for how some places are differently advantaged to exploit solar thermal. In general, desert areas do very well.

The table above gives average daily yields (kWh/m²/day, or equivalent hours at 1000 W/m²) for three types of solar collection in four locations, each entry giving worst-month/yearly-average/best-month values. The first is for a flat plate tilted to the site latitude (appropriate for PV or hot water), followed by 1-axis concentration tilting along a N-S axis, and finally a 2-axis concentration configuration. Solar thermal makes the most sense in areas where more energy will be collected than with PV panels?but this is not a rigorous criterion, since solar thermal offers some advantages over PV, as we’ll discuss in a bit. In the table above, only Dagget, California?in the Mojave desert? has concentration beating flat-panel PV for total energy. Other desert cities in the Southwestern U.S. likewise are favorable toward solar thermal electricity. But it’s definitely a location-dependent technology.

Solar Thermal Schemes

Schemes abound: 1) power towers where an array of individually-steered flat mirrors are angled to put sunlight at the top of a tower in the middle of the array; 2) satellite-dish-looking segmented bowls with a heat engine at the focus; 3) parabolic trough arrays with a hot-oil-carrying pipe running down the focus; 4) and others topologies, I am sure.

Taking the simple parabolic trough as an example, about 70% of the incident energy makes it into the 400°C fluid running within the central pipe. Heat carried by the oil makes steam to turn turbines, in the traditional power plant sense. The efficiency of the power plant portion is in the usual ballpark of 30%. These two factors alone produce 20% efficiency, but other losses tend to push it down to 15% or so. The troughs are typically oriented north-south, with daily tracking (e.g., pivot about the hot pipe). Self-shadowing becomes an issue, mitigated by providing ample room between collectors. If you want to track the sun as low as 15 degrees elevation with no shadowing, for instance, only one-fourth of the land area is utilized. East-west orientations are also possible, performing less well year-round, but more uniformly throughout the year.

Parabolic troughs are pretty neat, I think, for a variety of reasons. First, the parabolic shape accomplishes focus independent of the slant angle of the light in the direction along the axis: mathematical perfection no matter the angle. This leads to the second serious advantage?already discussed?of single-axis tracking along a north-south axis. The ability to transport the heat along the axis using a fluid/pipe is unique to this design, making it convenient to schlep the heat around where you want it. Finally, because the shiny material only needs to be bent in one direction (far easier than a bowl-shape), the reflectors are relatively inexpensive to make.

Evaluating a realized example, the Nevada Solar One plant has a 64 MW nominal capacity, generating 134 million kilowatt-hours of energy per year. Dividing these two implies about 2100 hours of full-power operation per year, for a duty cycle of 24%, or 5.7 hours per day. The NREL database for Las Vegas expects a north-south single-axis tracker to get an average of 6.2 hours per day horizon-to-horizon. So not too far off. The plant cost $266 million to build, amounting to $4.15 per Watt. Pretty similar to installed solar PV. The plant occupies about 1.6 km² of land, computing to 40 W/m² at nominal full power. This is 4% of the incident 1000 W/m² (at the height of summer), which is pretty close to what we would guess for a 15% efficient collector occupying 25% of the land area. I love it when the numbers make sense!

A Storage Boon

One serious perk to solar thermal?not yet exploited as fully as it might be?is thermal storage. Make hay when the sun shines, and squirrel it away for overnight use. All solar thermal plants have short-term immunity from intermittency due simply to the thermal mass in the system. Solar thermal plants are designed with varying degrees of storage, many just aiming for several hours to better follow the peak demand curve into the evening. But as renewables gain dominance over fossil fuels (as I’m hoping they do), storage will become increasingly important. To my mind, the ratio of storage to collection is pretty straightforward to change (i.e., bigger vat of hot fluid), so that in principle solar thermal plants could achieve days of storage with little added complexity. We can’t say this about PV or wind. And storage efficiency for a large container grows linearly with the tank’s dimension, since it the energy contained scales like volume, while thermal loss paths tend to scale with area.

One of the Winners

We looked at three categories of using heat from the Sun: passive home heating, hot water, and solar thermal electricity. Virtually anything involving direct use of solar energy?as opposed to hydroelectric, wind, waves, etc. as secondary and tertiary derivatives of solar input?is bound to end up on the abundant side of the story. And so it is with these three, although perhaps given that the first two are confined to the meager area represented by rooftops and/or windows?rather than the entire land area?they should more fairly be stashed in the “potent” box.

Solar thermal electricity definitely joins the camp as an abundant resource. Some of the other abundant resources described to date (nuclear breeders, geothermal depletion, and more to come) present technical hurdles or other practical barriers that diminish my excitement for them. I won’t claim that solar thermal electricity has no difficulties (reflectors get dusty/abraded by desert sands, for instance). But it’s pretty low-tech, utilizes over a century of experience in running heat engines, allows storage to be an integral part of the design, and is super-abundant on the scale of things. All the same, we have found yet another viable way to make electricity, doing little to directly address a liquid fuels shortage.

The low-tech nature of solar thermal makes it especially robust in tough times. I can imagine personally designing and building a passive solar home, flat-plate thermal collectors for hot water, and even a parabolic trough to create steam. I can’t say the same about a PV panel, a nuclear reactor, or geothermal wells kilometers deep. It gets my vote.

We’ll see nuclear fusion next week. Sound familiar?