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BERLIN ? There are 4,169 miles between Berlin and Washington. But on economic policy, the two capitals sometimes appear to be on different planets.

Germany has taken a tough-love, austerity-driven approach to solving Europe?s recession, pushing struggling countries to sharply cut public spending and chop their debt even as their economies slump. The United States confronted its own crisis with an $862 billion stimulus package in 2009, which brought debt levels to heights not seen since shortly after World War II but may have dulled the worst blow of its downturn.

HUSSEINYIA, Egypt ? Thousands of people crowded into a tent on a dirt lot in this all-but-forgotten town north of Cairo on a recent afternoon to hear Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh.

Some came because they had already decided to vote for the moderate Islamist, a front-runner in the presidential campaign. Others wanted to know more. But all shared the anticipation and sense of responsibility that are building here as the May 23 vote approaches, the first time in modern Egypt that the winner of a presidential election is not a foregone conclusion.

ATHENS ? Europe?s economic woes escalated Friday as fears mounted over troubled Spanish banks and after the credit rating agency Fitch further downgraded Greece?s debt, citing heightened concern the country may be forced to leave the euro.

Andrew Liepman, who is stepping down Friday as deputy director of the National Counterterrorism Center, has spent much of his tenure monitoring a near-constant stream of threats, including the latest al-Qaeda plot to blow up an airplane with an underwear bomb.

? FTSE 100 at new low for 2012
? Asian shares fall sharply
? Wolfgang Schäuble sees 12-24 months of turmoil
? Spain hit by banks downgrade...
? ... and rise in bad bank debts

12.27pm: In a volatile session, European stock markets have clawed their way back, amid ongoing chatter in the markets that a short-selling ban might be reintroduced. The FTSE 100 is still in the red (down 30 points at 5309), but other markets are a little higher.

Short-selling bans are usually brought in during times of crisis. They do tend to provide some short-term support for share prices, but don't fix underlying problems....

12.04pm: The European Commission has now denied that is has been working on an exit plan for Greece, after trade commissioner Karel De Gucht told a Dutch newspaper that contingency plans had been drawn up (see 10.15am).

European Commission spokesman Olivier Bailly has said that the EC "denies firmly" that any such exit scenario is being worked on, and that the Commission still wants Greece in the eurozone. There is no secret Grexit plan, Bailly insisted.

#Barroso and #Rehn have been saying for 2 years that #EC wants #Greece to stay in #?. This remains TRUE! NO PLAN from #EC for #GREXIT.

? olivier bailly (@ECspokesOlivier) May 18, 2012

11.07am: While European stock markets have suffered again, there has been another surge of money into AAA-rated government bonds.

With investors desperate to find a safe home for their money, German bonds hit their highest levels ever. This pushed the yield (the measure of interest rate) on 10-year bunds down to a new alltime low of just 1.396% in early trading (Tradeweb date, via the Reuters terminal). UK 10-year gilts also strengthened, pushing down the yield to 1.81%.

Such record low yields suggest both countries will be able to borrow at very low rates at the present time. Economists, though, see record low yields as a sign of stagnation. Dr Gerard Lyons of Standard Chartered pointed out that a similar pattern was seen in Japan during its financial crisis 20 years ago.

During the lost decade in Japan a key sign of market throwing in the towel on the economy was when yields fell sharply - as now in Europe.

? Gerard Lyons(@DrGerardLyons) May 18, 2012

Lyons was on sharp form on the BBC this morning too, describing the tension between Greece and the rest of Europe as a poker game, in which "instead of both sides playing Aces at the last minute they will produce Jokers".

10.55am: German chancellor Angela Merkel made a telephone call to the Greek President Karolos Papoulias this morning, to discuss the crisis.

A German government spokesman has just confirmed the call, explaining that Merkel "expressed the German government's wish for a functioning government in Greece". According to Greek TV, Papoulias will now brief caretaker PM Pikramenos on the discussion, so more details might come out later...

Seperately, a spokeswoman for the finance ministry has been quizzed about this morning's report (see 10.15am) that the ECB has been working on contingency plans in case Greece leaves the eurozone. No details emerged, but she did say that:

Our citizens expect us to be prepared for every eventuality.

10.15am: EU trade commissioner Karel De Gucht has confirmed that the European Commission and the European Central Bank are working on an emergency scenario in case Greece should leave the euro zone.

While we'd rather assumed that contingency work was underway, I'm not aware of an official stating it before (shout out if you know better).

De Gucht made the comments in an interview with Belgian newspaper De Standaard, arguing that a 'domino effect' from a Greek exit could be contained:

Both within the European Central Bank and the European Commission, services that are working on emergency scenarios in case Greece doesn't make it.

De Gucht declined to give details, and added that he still expects Greece to remain in the euro.

9.49am: In the financial markets, the FTSE 100 remains sharply lower, down 53 points at 5285, at its lowest point since 30 November.

This moves the UK blue-chip index deeper into 'corrrection' territory, from its recent high of 5965 in mid-March.

The German DAX and French CAC markets are also still in the red, both down around 0.6%.

But surprisingly, the Spanish stock market is actually up. Led by Bankia, whose shares have surged by 28% this morning. Quite a turnaround, following yesterday's rumours of a bank run. Other financial stocks are also now up, despite Moody's volley of downgrades last night.

That follows a report that Goldman Sachs has been hired to value Bankia ? which could prelude a break-up.

UPDATE: A couple of City types have also mentioned a rumour that Spain might impose a ban on short selling (selling stocks which you don't actually own). Nothing official though.

9.35am: The crisis in the Spanish banking sector comes nearly four years after Santander was playing a 'white knight' role during the UK's own banking crisis.

Our banking expert Jill Treanor comments:

Interesting times for Santander UK. This was the bank that the Labour government turned to during the 2008 crisis to take on Bradford & Bingley savers. It also bought Alliance and Leicester just before the crash.

Now, unrelated to last nigh's downgrade, its attempts at a stock market flotation - earmarked for two years ago - are now pushed back until at least next year. Even so, it still has a strong rating and has not been downgraded as much as the overall group.

9.13am: The proportion of bad debts sitting on the books of Spanish banks has risen to its highest level since August 1994.

Bank of Spain data showed that the bad loans rate across the Spanish banking sector rose to 8.37% in March. The number of loans falling into arrears increased by ?1.6bn to ?148bn.

That underlines the thinking behind Moodys' downgrades last night ? Spain's banking sector is stuffed full of loans that turned sour once the property market crashed.

Those bad debts could grow significantly if the Spanish economy deteriorates, making it even harder for the Madrid government to recapitalise its banks and put them on a sound footing. As Nicholas Spiro of Spiro Sovereign Strategy points out:

Spanish bank restructuring is a moving target: the deeper the downturn, the bigger the scope for a further deterioration in asset quality.

8.55am: France's new prime minister had stern words for European leaders this morning for their failure to help Greece through the financial crisis.

Jean-Marc Ayrault, a former German teacher, added his voice to the chorus calling for a new growth agenda. Ayrault urged Brussels to put spare structural funds to work to help the Greek economy return to growth:

We waited too long before helping Greece. This has been going on for two years now and only gets worse....

Tough talk, but not exactly unfair.

8.36am: German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble said on Friday that the market turmoil surrounding the euro zone crisis could last another two years.

Speaking on France's Europe 1 radio after Asian markets had tumbled, Schäuble said:

Regarding the crisis of confidence in the euro ... in 12 to 24 months we will see a calming of the financial markets

And that, it seems, is Schäuble being optimistic. He also appeared to warn Greek voters not to trust parties who promise to renegotiate Greece's financial progamme.

It's up to Greek politicians to explain the reality to their people and not make false promises.
We want Greece to stay in the euro but meet its commitments and that's a decision that's up to the Greeks.

8.27am: Santander UK, which was downgraded one notch by Moody's last, is stressing this morning that the downgrade won't affect its business.

A spokesman said:

The change to Moody's credit rating of Santander UK plc has no impact on our businesses in the UK or our plans for future growth. Santander UK plc is an autonomous subsidiary of the Santander Group, with more than 90% of its total assets held in the UK and a Eurozone sovereign exposure of less than 1% of assets.

Santander UK is a key player in the British financial sector, having acquired Alliance & Leicester, Abbey National and Bradford and
Bingley. It now has a higher credit rating than its parent company, following Banco Santander's three-notch drubbing.

8.10am: European stock markets have fallen at the start of trading, with Spain's IBEX showing the steepest losses.

The IBEX shed 128 points, or 2%, at the start of trading, hitting a new nine-year low of 6409 points. That follows Moody's downgrading much of the Spanish banking sector last night (see 7.49am)

In London, the FTSE 100 is down 50 points at 5289, a new low for the year. Just four shares have risen, while mining companies and banks are leading the fallers. Rio Tinto, Xstrata, Lloyds Banking Group and Barclays are all down at least 2.5%.

It's a similar tale across Europe, with the Italian FTSE MIB down 1.5% and the French and German markets dropping around 1%.

There's a really downbeat mood in the City this morning. As Clive Duckitt, director at Fyshe Horton Finney, commented:

There seems little respite from the gloomy news that has engulfed equity markets in recent weeks.

7.56am: Risk aversion has driven the US dollar up this morning, as traders look to put their money somewhere safe.

This has pushed the euro down to a new four-month low of $1.2649 against the US dollar.

It has also pushed the oil price to its lowest level of the year, with a barrel of Brent crude dropping $1 to $106.40. That might actually bring some relief to the global economy, as high fuel and energy prices have been blamed for pushing up inflation.

7.49am: Moody's decision to downgrade much of Spain's banking sector last night has put country's financial problems under even more scrutiny.

Some downgrades had been anticipated, but the scale of the move is still quite dramatic ? with 16 banks downgraded in total and some, including the giant Santander, by three notches.

Moody's blamed the weak Spanish economy (currently in recession), and the Madrid government's reduced ability to support troubled lenders, given its own problems.

Amidst the ongoing euro area debt crisis, the Spanish government's rising budget deficit and the renewed recession, sovereign creditworthiness has declined.

Spain's banking sector was also reeling from reports, officially denied, that worried customers were pulling deposits out of Bankia.

As analysts at Investec comment, "It's not going to go down in history as a great day for Spanish banks."

7.38am: Asian markets were hit hard overnight by fears over the health of the Spanish banking sector, and the looming threat of a eurozone break-up.

In Tokyo, the Nikkei fell by 2.99% at 8611.31, its lowest level since January. The index has now fallen for seven weeks in a row -- its worst performance since 2001. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index is down -2.69%.

Ben Kwong, Hong Kong-based chief operating officer at KGI Asia, called it straight:

It's really bad....

Fears of a Greek exit from the euro zone and the negative consequences from that are prevailing.

Australian stocks were also hit overnight, particulaly banks and miners (with National Australia Bank falling 4.23%, and Rio Tinto down 5%). Warnings that China's economic growth might be lower than expected this year also hit sentiment.

Chris Weston, institutional trader at IG, was also in bleak mood, predicting a "dark and tiresome open" in European markets.

The world is bereft of good news

7.35am: Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the eurozone financial crisis.

Not that there's much 'good' about this morning. The escalating crisis having sparked heavy losses in Asian stock markets overnight, and another sell-off expected in Europe today.

There are two factors behind the sell-off: Fitch downgrading Greece yesterday evening on concerns that it might soon leave the eurozone and default, and Moody's decision to downgrade 16 Spanish banks.

Those two developments capture the essence of the crisis today ? Greece pushed to the brink of euro exit by austerity, a long recession and an huge debt mountain, and Spain battling to avoid the same fate. We'll be watching both countries today.

World leaders are gathering in the US for the G8 summit, facing the growing threat of a global downturn. Barack Obama is expected to demand that Europe bows to pressure at home and abroad with new policies to boost growth.

Germany to be urged to ease austerity during G8 talks as fears of global recession grow

Barack Obama is to put pressure on Germany to ease the pain of austerity with policies to boost growth, as he uses two days of talks with the G8 industrial nations to warn Europe that it needs to act swiftly to spare the world economy from a second deep recession in four years.

Prior to the G8 summit at Camp David this weekend, a warning from the ratings agency Fitch that Greece's days in the single currency could be numbered heightened fears in Washington that the worsening crisis in the eurozone poses a threat to America's fragile recovery and President Obama's re-election chances.

Obama will welcome the new French president, François Hollande, as a potential ally in his push for Europe to follow the US in giving a higher priority to expansionary policies, and as a counterweight to the German chancellor, Angela Merkel.

Obama can expect support from David Cameron, who told Merkel and Hollande on Thursday that eurozone leaders must embark on a series of urgent steps to prop up the single currency if a major implosion across the continent is to be avoided.

In a video conference with fellow EU leaders, the prime minister warned of a "remorseless logic" which dictates that struggling members of a single currency are supported by stronger members.

"The prime minister emphasised the importance of Greece and the eurozone taking decisive action to ensure financial stability and prevent contagion," a Downing Street spokesperson said. The video conference included Mario Monti, the Italian prime minister, José Manuel Barroso, the European Commission president, and Herman van Rompuy, president of the European Council.

Investors again turned to safe havens, fearing political chaos and economic collapse in Greece having knock-on effects for the global economy. Spain was the main focus of concern, amid reports ? denied by the economy minister ? of a run on Bankia, the country's fourth-biggest bank. Fitch waited for European markets to close before downgrading Greece's credit rating from B- to CCC.

"The downgrade of Greece's sovereign ratings reflects the heightened risk that Greece may not be able to sustain its membership of economic and monetary union (EMU) ... In the event that the new general elections scheduled for 17 June fail to produce a government with a mandate to continue with the EU-IMF [International Monetary Fund] programme of fiscal austerity and structural reform, an exit of Greece from EMU would be probable," Fitch said.

Leaders of the west's most powerful economies have been meeting for informal talks every year since the oil shock of 1973 brought an end to the postwar boom, and while Obama is not expecting any major decision to emerge from Camp David, it will be a chance for the Americans to vent their frustration that Europe has failed to find a lasting solution to its debt crisis, which is now in its third year.

In Greece, there were hopes that the deposit outflows from banks had reduced. But Stuart Gulliver, chief executive of Britain's biggest bank, HSBC, said: "We're in a worse place than we were a week ago. It remains a very difficult thing to call. I think the second [Greek] election in June will be a referendum on whether to stay in the euro. A month is a very long way away. We are now seeing price action that is consistent with capitulation."

Gulliver said if Greece left the eurozone, a firewall would need to be erected around Spain. If there was a run on banks in Greece, it might not be possible to wait for the elections on 17 June. He said his biggest worry "is absolutely how the eurozone plays out ? whether Greece stays in, whether firewalls are high enough to protect Spain and, frankly, whether markets take things into their own hands before 17 June".

Alistair Darling, Labour's chancellor at the time of the Lehman Brothers collapse, said: "From my own experience, these things can blow up in a matter of hours. The slow bleeding of Greek banks should worry everyone. Europe for the last two years has been running round like headless chickens. It's no wonder people now think things will go wrong."

Social network's landmark flotation has investors clamouring to buy, but some analysts issue warnings about IPO

Facebook has set the final price of shares in its landmark initial public offering at $38 (£24), the top of the price range it gave this week, as investors clamoured to buy into the social network. The move values the company at around $104bn.

Facebook had raised the price range to $34-$38 a share from $28-$35 earlier this week. The company's shares will begin trading alongside Amazon, Apple and other tech giants on the Nasdaq stock exchange on Friday in what will be the biggest technology flotation ever.

The $18.4bn share sale will be America's second biggest, behind Visa's $19.65bn sale in 2008. Founder Mark Zuckerberg, who owns 28.1% of Facebook shares, will instantly be propelled into the top tier of the super-rich.

The consultancy Wealth-X estimates his net pre-IPO fortune at $18.95bn. When, and if, Facebook's shares take off on Friday, some are predicting a massive first-day rise, known as a "pop", that would make Zuckerberg richer than Larry Page or Sergey Brin, the Google founders whose wealth soared after their own IPO.

The Los Angeles-based Wedbush Securities, the first firm to rate Facebook after it announced plans to sell shares, has set a 12-month price target of $44.

Facebook increased the size of its iniitial IPO this week by 25%, or about 100m shares, to meet investor demand. Some of its largest shareholders and early investors seized the moment to raise the number of shares they are selling, adding a potential $3.8bn to the value of the sale.

While Zuckerberg said he would be maintaining his holding, the hedge fund Tiger Global, run by 36-year-old New Yorker Chase Coleman, increased its sell-off from 3m to 23m shares. DST Group, which represents Russian investors such as Yuri Milner, is now planning to offload a quarter of its holding.

Goldman Sachs announced that it would sell 29m shares, more than double its previous plans to sell 13m. Peter Thiel, a legendary Silicon Valley investor who was one of the firm's first big backers, is now planning to sell 17m shares, up from 8m.

Zuckerberg will ring the Nasdaq stock exchange's opening bell in New York remotely from the company's headquarters, a 23-hectare complex in Menlo Park, California. The company's shares will then start trading with the stock symbol FB.

The hype surrounding the launch has drawn scepticism from some analysts. Sam Hamadeh, founder of the analysis firm PrivCo, has argued that Facebook is worth a fraction of the estimates. In a note to potential investors, he valued Facebook at just $24-$25 a share.

General Motors announced this week that it was pulling its advertisements off the social network, claiming that they were not working. GM is one of the world's largest advertisers and spent $1.83bn on ads in the US alone last year.

The car firm spent just $10m on Facebook, a tiny fraction of the tech company's $3.7bn revenues. But the move was a PR blow for a company that intends to make most of its cash from advertisers.

Nate Elliott, an analyst with the interactive marketing firm Forrester, wrote on his blog: "We wish we could predict this IPO would serve as a new beginning for Facebook's marketing offering, and that a new focus on becoming a grown-up business would inspire the company to put even half the energy into serving advertisers that it does into serving users.

"But we doubt Zuckerberg's going to wake up any day soon having acquired a taste for advertising, or even a proper understanding of it. And so every day more smart marketers are going to wake up and look for other places to dedicate their social resources."

Prime minister launches Can Parent initiative to offer guidance and says he will push for childcare tax breaks

Parenting classes should be taken as seriously as driving lessons, David Cameron will declare as he announces measures to help the "nation-builders" raising Britain's next generation.

The prime minister, whose Can Parent initiative is allowing parents to fund classes through £100 vouchers handed out at Boots in some areas, said his plans represented the "sensible state" rather than the nanny state. The parenting classes in 10 two-hour sessions will offer advice on nutrition, behaviour and development.

Cameron made it clear on Thursday that he would like to introduce tax breaks for childcare. He reportedly told a Manchester businesswoman after making a speech in the city that he was "hugely attracted to the idea of making childcare tax allowable".

The prime minister will launch a strong defence of parenting classes. "It's ludicrous that we should expect people to train for hours to drive a car or use a computer but, when it comes to looking after a baby, we tell people to just get on with it," he will say.

Cameron, whose late son Ivan was severely paralysed, admits he would have appreciated guidance: "I would have loved more guidance when my children were babies. We've all been there when it's the middle of the night, your child won't stop crying and you don't know what to do

"Parents are nation-builders. It's through love and sheer hard work that we raise the next generation with the right values. That's why this government is doing everything possible to support parents. This is not the nanny state ? it's the sensible state.

"To those who say that government should forget about parenting and families and focus on the big, gritty issues, I'd say these are the big, gritty issues. Families don't just shape us as individuals, they make a stronger society. That's why supporting families is right at the top of our agenda ? and I'm going to make sure it stays that way."

Parenting classes will take place as pilot schemes, backed by a new website, in Middlesbrough, Camden in north London and in High Peak, Derbyshire. A relationship support service will be piloted in York, Leeds, north Essex and in some London boroughs from July for all expectant parents and those with children up to the age of two.

The idea, drawn up by the prime minister's departing policy guru Steve Hilton, is one response to the riots of last summer.

Frank Field, Labour's former welfare minister, previously proposed parenting classes in a report for Cameron in December 2010. Field said they should be routinely offered to new parents. They "should be seen as something normal to do, rather than remedial, or something only for low income families".

Field wrote: "Poor parenting exists across the income distribution, but tends to have less of an impact on better-off children where other factors provide greater protection against poor outcomes."

He said that children's centres and home visitors should encourage parents to attend classes "as a matter of course". Health visitors should offer "to sign them up as a matter of routine, initially targeting this on those most likely to benefit".

? Protesters plan tribute to Aleppo university students
? Ban Ki-moon says al-Qaida responsible for Damascus bombs
? Expatriate votes counted in Egypt's presidential election

12.35pm: Syria: A UN monitor has expressed his frustration at being being filmed by activists in Dera'a, advising them not to post clips of him to YouTube.

The citizen journalist ignored the request.

The monitor, who spoke with a Yemeni accent according to our colleague Mona Mahmood, said: "We are here to watch the two sides and file a report."

Asked repeatedly whether he had seen army checkpoints the monitor said:

Listen man. We are not here to give press statements. Please let us do our job properly, with honesty and impartiality.

Whatever I see I will report. Please let us do our job and don't waste our time.

There is no reason to film me or to put it on YouTube. All these are useless.

At the start of the clip the monitor was challenged to take pictures of the destruction of Dera'a. Gesturing at the scene, a resident said: "Wherever you go you will find destruction. My family has fled to Jordan. This is the house of my cousin this is the house of my sister. No one can stay here."

The encounter appears to reflect a growing frustration from the UN at activists filming their work.

The Guardian asked Kofi Annan's spokesman Ahmad Fawzi to confirm video which appeared to show a UN monitor crawling to safety in Khan Sheikhoun on Tuesday. He said: "We don't comment on videos posted on the internet."

12.01pm: Syria: Videos of post-Friday prayer protests are beginning to emerge. Despite reports of a fresh bombardment in Rastan today, protesters took to the streets to chant in support of students in Aleppo.

Protests have also been filmed in Idlib, and Abu Kamal in the eastern province of Deir Ezzor.

11.52am: Britain: From the official guest list, these are the Middle Eastern royals who will be dining with the Queen today:

HM The King of Bahrain
HRH Princess Sabeeka bint Ibrahim Al Khalifa (Bahrain)
HM The King of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan
HM Queen of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan
HH Sheikh Nasser Mohamed Al-Jaber Al-Sabah of Kuwait
HRH Princess Lalla Meryem of Morocco
HH The Emir of The State of Qatar
HH Sheika Mozah bint Nasser Al-Missned (Qatar)
HRH Prince Mohammed Bin Nawaf Bin Abdulaziz Al Saud of Saudi Arabia
HH The Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi

11.30am: Egypt: The Egyptian embassy in London has confirmed that Abdel Moneim Abul Foutouh won the most votes among Egyptians in the UK.

He secured 1,300 of the 4,286 votes casts in the UK presidential election, a spokeswoman told the Guardian. The leftist Hamdeen Sabahi came second with 962, followed by former foreign minster Amr Moussa who secured 907. The Muslim Brotherhood's Mohammed Morsi came a distant fourth with 354 votes.

The turnout was 60% the spokeswoman said. Votes for the minor candidates are not yet available.

11.13am: Libya: UN human rights experts say they will visit Libya next week to examine the use of mercenaries to fight the uprising that eventually brought down the Gaddafi regime, AP reports.

Faiza Patel, head of the UN Human Rights Council panel, says it also aims to collect "direct and first-hand information" on private companies offering military aid, consultants and security to Gaddafi's regime.

Patel and another expert said Friday they will spend four days in Libya at the invitation of the government, which claims to have evidence linking Gaddafi's son Saif al-Islam Gadhafi, to the supervision and planning of the recruitment of mercenaries in the civil war that ended the regime.

10.48am: Syria: The opposition stronghold of Rastan, between Hama and Homs, has come under more bombardment, according to video from activists.

One clip showed smoke billowing from behind a minaret, another purported to show the town's skyline during an attack.

There are unconfirmed reports that four people were killed.

10.18am: Syria: The Guardian's Martin Chulov has just returned from north west Syria and is tweeting snippets of what he saw and heard.

Back from 5 days around Idlib. Insurgency raging. Rebels scornful of regime's AQ narrative. Defectors streaming in, but not weapons. #Syria

? Martin Chulov (@martinchulov) May 18, 2012

'If u find me a man from al-qa'ida i'll buy u lunch,' an FSA Leader near Idlib told me. 'All lies. The regime's the terrorists'. #Syria

? Martin Chulov (@martinchulov) May 18, 2012

All defected officers i spoke to in #Syria had 1st hand accounts of regime plots that were blamed on AQ.

? Martin Chulov (@martinchulov) May 18, 2012

The Guardian is planning to publish Martin's dispatch in the next few days.

9.58am: Bahrain: A journalist who criticised Bahrain's proposed union with Saudi Arabia was seized from his home near Manama on Wednesday and his current whereabouts are unknown, the New York-based Committee to Protect Journalists says.

Ahmed Radhi, a freelance who contributes to local news websites and has an Arabic blog called Silahi Qalami ("My weapon is my pen"), was reportedly arrested by security forces at 4am after they broke down his door.

Although there is no information about any charges against him, Radhi was arrested in the wake of comments he made in radio interviews on Monday and Tuesday criticising the proposed union with Saudi Arabia, his family members told the London-based Bahrain Press Association.

He later posted notes about the interviews on Facebook in Arabic (here and here) and also
tweeted about them.

9.52am: Syria: Robert Mood (pictured) the head of the UN's monitoring team, appears to have given a gloomy assessment about the effectiveness of the mission.

He told a press conference that no amount of observers in Syria can achieve a permanent end to the violence without dialogue, according to AP.

There are currently 257 monitors deployed in Syria. A further 43 monitors will be deployed by the end of the month.

9.40am: Egypt: Preliminary expat results are beginning to emerge pointing to wins for the moderate Islamist candidate Abdel Moneim Abul Fotouh.

The former member of the Muslim Brotherhood has come out top among Egyptian in the UK, according to random sampling and exit polls seen by Omar Ashour, visiting fellow at the Brookings Doha Centre.

#EgyPresElex results in UK: #Aboulfotouh wins w/1300 votes, hamdin 962, #Moussa 907, #Morsi 354 @SultanAlQassemi @monaeltahawy @seldeeb

? Omar Ashour (@DrOmarAshour) May 18, 2012

Abul Foutouh also appears to be winning among expats in the US, according to activist Mostafa Hussein.

Prelim. elections results from Washington DC according to @ymzada: AF 882, AM 644, HS 641, AS 404, Others 497. Out of 3068 valid votes.

? Mostafa Hussein (@moftasa) May 18, 2012

More significantly perhaps Abul Foutoh looks set to get the backing of Hazem Abu Ismail, a leading Salafist who was excluded from the presidential race, according to the Egypt Independent.

9.31am: Syria: A UN panel of experts which investigates sanctions-busting has accused North Korea of providing weapons-related supplies to Syria, Reuters reports.

One of the cases involving illicit arms trade with Syria was reported to the council's sanctions committee last month.

"In April 2012, France reported to the committee that it had inspected and seized in November 2010 an illicit shipment of arms-related materiel originating from the DPRK and destined for Syria," the report [from the investigators] said.

The shipment, which was on board the ship M/V San Francisco Bridge, was said to be containing "copper bars and plates."

"However, France's inspection of the cargo revealed that it contained brass discs and copper rods used to manufacture artillery munitions (pellets and rods for crimping cartridges and driving bands) and aluminum alloy tubes usable for making rockets," the panel said.

Another case involved a 2007 shipment of propellant usable for SCUD missiles and other items that could be used for ballistic missiles. The panel had referred to it in last year's report but added details about a Syria connection and confirmed that it had been transported via China.

"This shipment originated in the DPRK [North Korea], was trans-shipped in Dalian (China), and Port Kelang (Malaysia), and transited through other ports," the report said. "It was en route to Latakia, Syria."

Although both shipments were made before the Syrian government launched its assault on opposition demonstrators in March 2011, diplomats said they were worrying because it showed the kinds of items Damascus had been trying to add to its arsenal ? and the aid it received from North Korea and China.

The panel also reported recently on illegal arms shipments from Iran to Syria.

9.14am: Syria: Video has emerged of protesters at Aleppo university taking shelter in a graffiti-daubed UN monitoring vehicle, as the security forces beat fellow protesters outside.

The footage is unverified but would be difficult to fake.

The state news agency Sana acknowledged that the UN monitors visited Aleppo but made no mention of what took place.

It did say an investigation has been ordered into Tuesday's events in Khan Sheikhoun when UN monitors were fired at after a protest at a funeral.

9.07am: Syria: The state news agency Sana has leapt on Ban Ki-moon's remarks about al-Qaida being responsible for last week's bomb attacks in Damascus.

It says the al-Nusra Front, a shady group with links to al-Qaida, has claimed responsibility for the attack. It doesn't point out that it later denied claiming responsibility.

8.47am: (all times BST) Welcome to Middle East Live. Even before yesterday's clashes in Aleppo, protesters across the country were planning to pay a Friday tribute to students in Syria's second city. Yesterday scenes at the university, which were live streamed over the internet and occurred under the gaze of UN monitors, are likely to give added impetuous to today's demonstrations.

Syria

? The slogan for Friday's protests is "heroes of Aleppo University," in solidarity with students who demonstrated despite brutal repression against the university, Now Lebanon reports. Yesterday students called for the arming of the Free Syrian Army, it said citing an activist.

? The presence of UN monitors, prompted hundreds of students to converge on Aleppo university yesterday where they were set upon by pro-government students and security forces, the New York Times reports. The protest and the mayhem, conveyed by students who streamed live video to the Internet, was the first big demonstration at Aleppo University since security forces raided and emptied the dormitories two weeks ago in a crackdown that left at least four students dead.

? UN secretary-general Ban Ki-moon said he believed al-Qaida was responsible for two suicide car bombs that killed at least 55 people in Damascus last week. "A few days ago there was a huge, serious, massive terrorist attack. I believe that there must be al Qaida behind it. This has created again very serious problems," Ban told a youth event in New York without elaborating.

Scroll forward to 41 minutes to hear Ban discussing the crisis in Syria.

? The head of Syria's main opposition council has offered to resign "as soon as a replacement is found" after a network of activists threatened to leave the group warning it had drifted away from the spirit of the country's revolution. Burhan Ghalioun said he did not wish to be a divisive figure and was ready to step down, just days after he was re-elected to a third, three-month term.

? Yesterday we featured a video of protesters and UN monitors coming under firing in Khan Sheikhoun, but we failed to spot that it appeared to show a UN monitoring crawling to safety. The New York Times's Lede blog noticed the crucial detail and a subsequent video appearing to show the same monitor being dragged to safety.

? Residents in Areeha, 50km southwest of Aleppo have an ambivalent attitude to UN monitors, according to activist Shakeeb Al-Jabri writing on the opposition website Ayyam.

After each UN visit, Assad's army opened fire on the residents, a move that was seen as regime punishment for receiving the monitors. The short, and largely useless, visits enraged Areeha's residents. "We hated them for this," Ahmad, a local activist said, "They came, did nothing of use to us, they didn't even talk to us, but we still got punished."

However, the activists admit that the mere presence of monitors in Idlib, the main city 15 km away, has helped reduce the regime's assaults ...

The activists have mixed feelings about the monitors' potential. "Every time they visit we get punished," Jalal said "things have improved a bit, but not enough." Ahmad is more optimistic, "They made promises," he said, "we need to give them time to deliver."

? Syria's ambassador to the UN Bashar Ja'afari claims two British citizens who were "engaged in terrorist activity" have been killed in Syria. The letter, addressed to Ban Ki Moon, the UN General-Secretary, lists Hassan Blidi and Walid Hassan among ten foreigners killed in Syria's 15-month conflict, the Times reports.

Bahrain

? King Hamad al-Khalifa's invitation to the Queen's diamond jubilee gathering at Windsor Castle, has provoked widespread criticism because of Bahrain's brutal suppression of pro-democracy protests. The former Foreign Office minister Denis MacShane accused the FCO on Thursday of placing the Queen in an impossible position. The Labour MP said: "Many in Britain will regret that the foreign secretary, who approves all invitations sent in the Queen's name as head of state, has decided to include a representative of the Bahraini regime which has done such terrible things to its own people since the Arab awakening a year ago." Human rights campaigner Peter Tatchell accused eight countries whose leaders may be on the guest list of human rights abuses. He said: "It is outrageous that the Queen has invited royal tyrants to celebrate her diamond jubilee. "She should not host the monarchs of countries such as Brunei, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Swaziland and United Arab Emirates."

? There are three main camps in Bahraini politics - the government, the opposition, and the loyalist opposition - and they are all becoming more entrenched, according to a research paper published in Foreign Policy magazine. It concludes:

To avoid that conflagration, everyone must work toward ameliorating the distrust, street, and sectarian dynamics that threaten to rip the very fabric of Bahraini society apart. Unfortunately, potential spoilers abound within each camp, especially among the hardline factions who view the crisis with vastly different lenses and even personally benefit from the continuation of the crisis. It is unclear whether these factions can be convinced to play a productive role on the path to reconciliation. What is clear, however, is that if current trends continue, it is only a matter of time before Bahrain suffers a major escalation.

Egypt

? A week before the polls open for the presidential elections, the results from expatriates ballots are due to be announced. The Egyptian embassy in London said the counting is likely to start Friday morning with results announced by end of the day, Ahram reports.

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A leading gallery is to push the boundaries of visual art with an exhibition of works which cannot be seen.