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Ventre: Whether or not a haircut led to his slide, L.A. going nowhere without him

New York blows 7-0 lead, loses to NL East rivals in 13 innings.

Andy Pettitte and Alex Rodriguez are listless in the opener of the teams' final rivalry series at Yankee Stadium.

Brian Giles and Kevin Kouzmanoff both drove in three runs as the San Diego Padres denied Brandon Webb his 20th victory with a 9-2 win over the Arizona Diamondbacks on Tuesday night.

Cliff Lee got his American League-leading 19th win and Ben Francisco hit two home runs in the Cleveland Indians? ninth straight victory, 10-4 over the Detroit Tigers on Tuesday night.

On Monday, in the first of a three-part series on the free agent class of 2009, we took a look at the catchers and infielders. Today, we will break down the outfielders and designated hitters.

The list below includes a number of big-name players, most of whom are well into their 30s and past their peaks. In fact, Rocco Baldelli and Adam Dunn are the only free agent outfielders under the age of 30.

Outfielders
Bobby Abreu        NYY
Moises Alou        NYM
Garret Anderson*   LAA
Rocco Baldelli     TB
Willie Bloomquist  SEA
Emil Brown         OAK
Pat Burrell        PHI
Endy Chavez        NYM
Adam Dunn          ARI
Jim Edmonds        CHC
Cliff Floyd        TB
Brian Giles*       SD
Ken Griffey Jr.*   CWS
Vladimir Guerrero* LAA
Raul Ibanez        SEA
Mark Kotsay        ATL
Jason Michaels*    PIT
Greg Norton        ATL
Jay Payton         BAL
Scott Podsednik    COL
Manny Ramirez      LAD
Juan Rivera        LAA

The Yankees exercised their option on Bobby Abreu last winter and the veteran outfielder has responded by producing at a slightly better clip in 2008 (.297/.369/.467) than in 2007 (.283/.369/.445). However, despite seeing as many pitches per plate appearance as ever, Abreu's walk (10.1%) and BB/SO (0.61) rates are the lowest of his career. His secondary average (.291) and stolen base rate (58%) are also at all-time lows. Add in the fact that he is a below-average right fielder and will turn 35 next March and one can't help but to be skeptical of Abreu, especially if his contract demands call for a multi-year deal at an average of eight figures per season.

Moises Alou is out for the season following hamstring surgery. Now 42, he may never play again. If so, Alou will retire with a line of .303/.369/.516 and 332 HR. Based on his comps, Felipe's son seems like a worthy candidate for the fictional Hall of the Very Good.

The Angels are unlikely to pick up a $14 million team option on Garret Anderson (.284/.318/.426) and will either send him packing with a $3M gold watch (the cost of his buyout) or try to negotiate a short-term contract that would be more representative of his current playing ability. The Halos showed their loyalty when they signed him to a four-year extension back in April 2004 for a whopping $48M so it's time for GA, now 36, to do likewise if he is interested in finishing his career in Anaheim.

The Rays declined their team option on Rocco Baldelli on April 1 and will instead pay him a $4M buyout. After sitting out the first four months of the season with a mitochondrial disorder, the sixth overall pick in the 2000 draft returned to action two weeks ago and has gone 8-for-23 with 2 HR. Baldelli can help out Tampa Bay down the stretch and his marketability this off-season as the soon-to-be 27-year-old has only played 135 games since the end of the 2004 campaign.

After nine seasons with the Phillies, Pat Burrell, who turns 32 in October, will become a free agent for the first time. The No. 1 overall draft pick in 1998, Burrell signed a five-year MLB contract that summer, then inked a six-year extension prior to the 2003 season. Pat the Bat can hit and ranks in the top ten in the NL in OBP (.388), SLG (.548), OPS (.936), HR (30), and BB (89). Not too dissimilar to Adam Dunn in terms of production and position, Burrell should reap huge financial rewards this off-season for the third time in his career.

Arizona acquired Adam Dunn earlier this month in a waiver deal that sent Dallas Buck, Wilkin Castillo, and a player to be named later to Cincinnati. While Dunn may be nothing more than a seven-week rental (and maybe longer if the Diamondbacks make the playoffs), don't rule out Arizona in the free agent sweepstakes should he play well down the stretch. The 6-6, 275-pound slugger, who is on pace to hit 40 homers and draw 100 walks for the fifth consecutive season, is 11-for-40 with 2 HR and 18 BB (.500 OBP) for his new team.

Ken Griffey Jr. is in the final year of a 9-year/$116.5M contract. The White Sox will undoubtedly pass on a $16M club option for 2009 and split the cost of the $4M buyout with the Reds. If and where Junior plays next year is up in the air, but, either way, he will retire with more than 600 career home runs, 10 Gold Gloves, and as the sixth-best center fielder of all time.

Although Vladimir Guerrero (.287/.352/.500) is experiencing the worst season of his career, there is little doubt as to whether the Angels will exercise their $15M club option for next year. Bringing Vlad back for one more campaign and then letting him go could be a stroke of genius in terms of timing. He has clearly slipped at the plate, in the field, and on the basepaths, and his knees require an occasional day off, yet the 2004 MVP is still productive (123 OPS+) and likely to hold up for another year.

The Dodgers acquired Manny Ramirez (.314/.413/.549) in a three-way trade shortly before the deadline. The Red Sox volunteered to pay the remainder of his 2008 salary (about $7M) and agreed to eliminate the 2009-10 club options in exchange for Manny waiving his right to block the trade as a 10-and-5 player. While Ramirez has stated that he would like to finish his career in Los Angeles, everyone knows that will only happen if the Dodgers outbid the competition for his services. Handing the enigmatic outfielder a four-year contract for $80-100M for his 37-40 year-old seasons seems like a risky bet to me. Stay tuned.

Designated Hitters
Frank Thomas       OAK
Jim Thome*         CWS

Jim Thome (.253/.376/.525) seems like a much better bet than Frank Thomas (.226/.339/.362) at this point. Pay attention to Thome's playing time between now and the end of the season as his $13M club option is guaranteed with 1,100 plate appearances in 2007-08. He needs 82 PA in the White Sox's final 30 games to reach that mark.

* subject to club and/or player options

Our pal Jeff Albert, hitting coach for the Batavia Muckdogs, sat down for a terrific interview with Future Red Birds.

I know this question is pretty broad, but what are some of the things you are looking for in a player?s swing? Looking on video and in person are different things. With video, I generally look for how a player moves, angles of the upper body, swing path and sequence. In person, I want to see first if a player makes consistent barrel contact, then flight and direction of the ball, as well as rhythm and timing. From there it?s connecting the dots between what I see on video and live.

What are some of the things you teach players get the most out of their ability?

I like to explain the overall concept, verbally and visually, and give them the initial opportunity to adjust in their own way. I try to take the player?s strengths and build from there, mostly focusing on body position and swing path from a mechanics perspective, and being ready to hit the fastball from an approach perspective. There are a lot of ways to complicate things, but I try to boil it down to one or two simple points of focus for each guy.

We are entering the home stretch and four teams in the American League are having it out for three post-season spots. Presented below is relevant data pertaining to each contender's schedule make-up. One note; WAOWP means Weighted Average Opponents' Win Percentage.

Tampa Bay

W-L: 79-50, 1st in the AL East
Games Remaining: 33
Home: 16
Away: 17
WAOWP: .524
Home Record: 47-18
Road Record: 32-32

Boston

W-L: 75-55, 2nd in the AL East, 1st in AL Wild Card
Games Remaining: 32
Home: 20
Away: 12
WAOWP: .532
Home Record: 43-18
Road Record: 32-37

Chicago White Sox

W-L: 74-55, 1st in AL Central
Games Remaining: 31
Home: 13
Away: 18
WAOWP: .518
Home Record: 46-21
Road Record: 28-34

Minnesota

W-L: 74-56, 2nd in AL Central, 2nd in AL Wild Card
Games Remaining: 31
Home: 12
Away: 19
WAOWP: .491
Home Record: 46-23
Road Record: 28-33

So there you have it. Make of it what you will. Minnesota's schedule is easy but like the rest of the contenders they suck on the road. Boston has a bunch of home games but they play stiff competition. I am not sure we learn much from this, but there it is nonetheless.

In a 4-3 win over the Detroit Tigers last night, Grady Sizemore hit home runs number 30 and 31, pushing his season line to a phenomenal .271/.383/.532 mark. Having turned just 26 three weeks ago or so, Sizemore has affirmed that his outstanding 2006 campaign (.290/.375/.533) was no outlier. It seems safe to say that he has arrived as a superstar for years to come.

Of course that he may have reached a new, sustained performance level should strike fear into the rest of the league. Sizemore is already a player of historic significance, as there just have not been many center fielders able to produce, both with the glove and the bat, the way Grady has so early on in his career. He won the 2007 Gold Glove, and defensive statistics show him to have been one of the finest defenders before last season as well. Offensively, well, have a look at the table below.

          From   To   AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS+
Griffey   '89 - '93  .303  .375  .520   145 
Lynn      '74 - '78  .303  .372  .498   133
C Cedeno  '70 - '74  .294  .346  .476   131
Sizemore  '04 - '08  .280  .372  .494   126
Wynn      '63 - '67  .254  .336  .4444  125

Over the last fifty years, that's your list of center fielders who have managed a 125 OPS+ or better in their first five seasons. If Sizemore stays healthy and settles into the .375/.520 hitter it appears he is, Sizemore will eventually take his place among the finest center fielders ever to play.

As the baseball season finishes up the dog days of summer, I thought it would be instructive to take a peek at the upcoming crop of free agents.

With more teams signing young players to longer-term deals that buy out one or more free agent years, the talent pool is likely to age and/or diminish over time. These next few years could see the beginning of the end of the top 20-something players in their peak years turning to free agency. In the meantime, major-league baseball teams are still minting money, meaning there will be plenty of interest and dough for the best of the best. Moreover, the Yankees, with $88 million in salaries coming off the books, a new stadium that could produce a windfall in new revenues next season, and the strong likelihood of missing the post-season for the first time in more than a decade, will be bidding aggressively, driving up prices for the premiium players.

Mark Teixeira and C.C. Sabathia fit the bill this off-season, while Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn, and Manny Ramirez, among hitters, and Ryan Dempster, Derek Lowe, Oliver Perez, and Ben Sheets, among starting pitchers, and Brian Fuentes and Francisco Rodriguez, among relievers, should draw a lot of attention – and money – as well.

In the first of a three-part series, let's take a look at the catchers and infielders in the free agent class of 2009. We will follow up with the outfielders and pitchers in separate articles. Players marked by an asterisk after their names are subject to club and/or player options.

First Basemen      Club
Rich Aurilia       SF
Carlos Delgado*    NYM
Jason Giambi*      NYY
Wes Helms          PHI
Kevin Millar       BAL
Mark Teixeira      LAA
Daryle Ward        CHC

The Mets and Carlos Delgado have a $12M mutual option for 2009 (with a $4M buyout). The 36-year-old slugger got off to a poor start this season (.198/.297/.323 in April) but has hit .314/.407/.594 since July 1. Based on his buyout, the true cost of bringing him back is only $8M. He just may be a bargain at that price. However, Delgado, the team leader of the resurgent Mets, may not give his consent to such a deal. Stay tuned.

The Yankees will undoubtedly reject a $22M club option on Jason Giambi for 2009 and instead pay him a $5M buyout. Giambi, who turns 38 in January, is still productive at the plate, hitting .250/.381/.503 this season. Look for him to sign a one-year contract with an AL team.

Mark Teixeira (.302/.408/.541) is the prize of this year's free-agent class. The switch-hitting first baseman reportedly turned down an eight-year, $140 million contract extension from the Rangers last summer and is rumored to be seeking a ten-year deal for a minimum of $200M. The Angels need Tex's bat and approach (15 BB and 10 SO in 101 PA) but will be competing with the Yankees, Mariners, hometown Orioles, and perhaps the Mets, among others, for his services. If money is no object, sign him. However, I would be skeptical of Teixeira's performance in the final five years of such an agreement when he would be 34-38 years old.

Second Basemen     Club
Jamey Carroll*     CLE
Ray Durham         MIL
Mark Ellis         OAK
Mark Grudzielanek  KC
Orlando Hudson     ARI
Jeff Kent          LAD
Felipe Lopez       STL
Pablo Ozuna        LAD

Orlando Hudson (.305/.367/.450 in 107 games) is the best of a relatively weak group of second basemen. The three-time Gold Glover's season has been shortened once again as he underwent surgery earlier this month to repair ligament damage in his left wrist. The soon-to-be 31-year-old will become a free agent for the first time and will be looking to cash in. O-Dog has posted an OPS+ of greater than 100 for each of the past three campaigns. Only three other second sackers can make that claim: Ian Kinsler, Dan Uggla, and Chase Utley.

At 40, Jeff Kent has slipped noticeably this season, both at the plate (.283/.330/.424) and in the field (13 runs below average per 100 games). I guess it's possible that the Dodgers could bring him back for one more year, but it says here that the 2000 NL MVP and future Hall of Famer will retire.

Shortstops         Club
Orlando Cabrera    CWS
Alex Cintron       BAL
Alex Cora          BOS
Adam Everett       MIN
Rafael Furcal      LAD
Cesar Izturis      STL
Edgar Renteria*    DET

Orlando Cabrera (.272/.326/.357) is a solid, if unspectacular, shortstop. He doesn't hit for much power (7 HR in 585 PA) but still runs the bases well (18 SB in 22 attempts) and can more than handle the defensive requirements of the position. However, at the age of 34, OC may find the going tough this winter. Look for a team to ink him to a two-year contract as a stop gap awaiting a younger alternative.

When healthy, Rafael Furcal is one of the most productive shortstops in the game. He put up a .366/.448/.597 line through the first week of May before hitting the disabled list with a bulging disk in his back, which was surgically repaired in early July. The Dodgers were 18-14 in those 32 games and have been 47-51 without him. There is an outside chance that Furcal could return this season. Either way, the 31-year-old will have a tough time duplicating the three-year, $39M contract he signed as a free agent in December 2005.

Coming off a .332/.390/.470 campaign with the Braves in 2007, Edgar Renteria has been a huge disappointment for the Tigers. He is arguably having the worst year (.264/.314/.355) of his 13-year career. The 33-year-old is average at best defensively and no longer steals bases like he once did. Renteria has picked up the pace a bit in August (.290/.342/.449) and how he performs in September will probably determine the level of interest this winter.

Third Basemen      Club
Hank Blalock*      TEX
Joe Crede          CWS
Chipper Jones*     ATL

The Rangers can exercise a $6.2M club option on Hank Blalock for next season or let him go for a rather cheap $250,000 buyout. After missing more than three weeks, Blalock returned to action last Friday. Due to continued soreness in his right shoulder, Blalock may be relegated to first base, at least for the foreseeable future. Unless the seven-year veteran can man the hot corner, his value will be circumspect, especially given his career splits (.227/.282/.352 vs. LHP and .244/.301/.398 on the road). Put me solidly in the camp of the skeptics.

Joe Crede (.255/.323/.474) has been out of action with a bad back for more than a month. He is serving a rehab assignment with the Triple-A Knights and will likely join the White Sox before the month is out. His pluses (good power and excellent defense) and minuses (health and consistency) are well known. Crede will turn 31 next April and his best days are probably behind him. Put it all together and he looks like a poor man's Scott Rolen.

Make no mistake about it, Chipper Jones will be wearing a Braves uniform next season. According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, Atlanta has a club option that will vest between $8M and $11M (depending on performance and award bonuses). If anything, look for the Braves and Jones to work out a new deal that keeps the switch-hitting third baseman with the one and only club that he has known. Always an injury risk, Jones is more productive at the plate than ever. Look no further than his OPS+ marks the past four seasons:

YEAR   AGE   OPS+   
2005   33    151
2006   34    154
2007   35    166
2008   36    173

Jones (.359/.460/.568) is not only getting older, he is getting better. While I'm aware that the above trend is unlikely to continue, I would be comfortable tearing up his contract and signing him to an extension that would keep him in Atlanta for the next three seasons.

Utility Infielders Club
Craig Counsell*    MIL
Nomar Garciaparra  LAD
Nick Punto         MIN
Juan Uribe         CWS

Pass.

Catchers          Club
Rod Barajas        TOR
Henry Blanco*      CHC
Toby Hall*         CWS
Mike Redmond*      MIN
Ivan Rodriguez     NYY
Javier Valentin    CIN
Jason Varitek      BOS
Gregg Zaun*        TOR

There are two oldies but goodies...um...scratch that, oldies and formerly goodies...in this group. Ivan Rodriguez (.284/.329/.402 overall but .217/.265/.304 in 16 games with the Yankees) will turn 38 in November and is little more than a good defensive catcher at this point. He served as a two-month rental for New York but doesn't fit into the club's future plans as Jorge Posada is expected to return next season.

Jason Varitek is in the midst of the worst year (.223/.315/.370) of his 11-year career. Boston may have an interest in bringing back its captain, who turns 37 next April, for one more season but not at the $10M average he earned from 2005-2008. However, the question is whether or not Scott Boras' client can suck it up and accept such a deal.

Recently, I completed a scouting report on Pirates third baseman Andy Laroche. Below is an excerpt:

Laroche is a player many will undervalue. He walks, he hits for power, and he won't hit for a particularly high average.

Laroche has the potential to put up a .275 average, hit 25 - 30 homeruns, draw a lot of walks, and give the Pirates above average defense at third base.

In addition to the power and walks, Laroche is difficult to strikeout. If he's able to keep his strikeouts down around 12% and get a little lucky, he may be able to hit for a .300+ average. However, he never really showed an ability to rake in the minor leagues. By this, I mean players who hit everything hard and who maintain high BABIP rates. Larcoche usually had a BABIP in the .320s.

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I was asked by a loyal reader recently to take a look at Joba Chamberlain's mechanics due to the circumstances surrounding the Yankee pitcher lately. What I looked at was his risk of future injury in addition to a recent mechanical adjustment which helped improve what was mediocre control. Below is an excerpt:

One wrinkle Chamberlain has added recently--since the middle of June judging from the starts I've seen, is a brief hesitation in his arm action just after he breaks his hands. This helps in preventing his arm from rushing through his wind-up. In simpler terms, Chamberlain is essentially correcting certain timing issues with his delivery that may have a negative effect on his control. Below is Chamberlain at various points in the year....

...What you'll also notice in the two above clips is just how abrupt Chamberlain's finish is, which as I stated earlier, is my biggest concern in regards to Chamberlain's mechanics. I like pitchers that bury their head downward after release, allowing for a long follow through. Chamberlain basically springs upward into an upright position very shortly after his release and inital follow through, which makes it much tougher to achieve what is a long enough distance for the arm and body to decelerate cleanly.

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With Posey now signed to what appears to be an extremely large contract, it's time to take a harder look at the Giants' pick. Below is an excerpt:

Posey showed off excellent plate discipline by walking about two times for every strikeout. There are also no concerns with splits (he hit both lefties and righties equally) or competition (Friday was his second most productive day in hitting--Friday is usually when every team's No. 1 starter pitches and he was almost as good in conference as he was out of conference).

Posey's production as a junior at Florida State are pretty eye-popping. He was very solid his first two years, but exploded in 2008. The three homeruns from 2007 jumped to 26 and his batting average went from .382 to .463.

To sum it up, numbers-wise, Posey has very little weakness

Does the swing match the numbers? To read the rest of the article, please click here

As the deadline for signing draft picks approaches, I hope to soon complete the breaking down the draft series. I did this one a while back and will post the next version hopefully next week. Below is an excerpt on Chicago Cubs pick Ryan Flaherty:

There are times when Flaherty's hands can get a little out in front, but this is correctable. The bat speed, the loft, the loading?none scream plus power, but I don't see why he can't hit 15 home runs a year with a bunch of doubles.

I also like the versatility that Flaherty can provide. The Cubs will try him at shortstop for now, but he may be too big to remain at the position full-time. However, he'll have the versatility to play almost every position at the big-league level.

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For this article, I look at the very under-the-radar, very raw, but very talented Minnesota Twin prospect Angel Morales. Below is an excerpt:

A lot of scouts questioned the worth of Morales' bat just before the draft. However, I saw a hitter that had the components of a powerful swing. I said the same thing about Aaron Hicks. Issues need to be worked out, but the components are there for the player to work with. Combined with the overall athleticism Morales possesses, making the necessary adjustments should come easier for him.

One thing that should be pointed out--do you see how Morales twists his knee just before toe touch? By twisting his knee that way, Morales then enables his hip rotation somewhat early. He needs to find a way to stride forward and plant without opening his hips too soon. This is especially noticeable in his game swing.

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